UPDATE: ACA Breaks 210K, 925K w/Medicaid (charts attached)

From the Daily Kos Archive

NOTE: This was originally posted over at Daily Kos. I've since ported it over here for archival purposes.

Meanwhile, since the official HHS report last week, I've made some major changes to the ObamacareSignups.netspreadsheet:

Going forward, whenever possible I'm going to only be listing actual enrollments for each state. In this sense, my numbers will more closely parallel EnrollMaven.com, an openly anti-ACA website that's also been tracking Obamacare signups. I was highly skeptical of EnrollMaven at first, but their methodology seems to be sound. In addition, they've at least been completely frank about their negative opinion of the ACA, and many of my sources have turned out to be identical to theirs, so I've grown pretty comfortable with using them as a cross-check on my own numbers.

However, there's still a few important differences between their site and ObamacareSignups.net:

--I'm continuing to include Medicaid and SCHIP enrollments, which they don't track; this is still a crucially important factor, both for the success of the ACA as well as from a purely humanitarian POV

--Their site is poorly laid out, requiring you to scroll endlessly to find the states, and they only list the most recent number for the day instead of showing any trend lines or alternative sources

--Since I'm using a Google Docs spreadsheet, you can easily export/copy the data to Excel or whatever to do what you will with

--They sort the states by Federal-run and State-run; I've marked the state-run sites as such (blue rows), but have kept them alphabetical for easier tracking

Having said all of that, here's the latest figures as of Friday, Nov. 22:

Total Exchange ENROLLMENTS: 211,016
Total Medicaid/SCHIP Expansion: 714,280

Total Combined: 925,296

California is the main force behind the latest numbers, as they just beefed up their official enrollment figure by 20,000 over a week ago and their (estimated) Medicaid tally by 60,000 (that one isn't official yet, but Medicaid additions are a lot more reliable than private enrollments).

I'm asking my helpers here at dKos to continue scouring state government reports, twitter feeds and news reports for state-by-state enrollment updates (both the exchanges as well as Medicaid).

Also, by popular demand, I've started a visual chart/graph of the signups, using the HHS Dept. report from last week as a starting point (click for a full-size version):

Bear in mind that this chart only includes the states which have actually reported new figures since then (only 14 have so far), and even then those numbers don't run all the way up to today (some only go up to a few days past the HHS report period which ended on 11/02).

Just to keep things in perspective (and reality-based), I've pulled out to the 7 million target figure and superimposed the Massachusetts "RomneyCare" signup chart from 2007 over it to give an idea of how that comparison is going. Bear in mind that they had a full year to signup vs. 6 months, so I've squished the timeframe in half to match the ACA target of 7 million by 3/31/14:

Again, while the red sliver at the bottom looks tiny, this only includes partial figures from 14 states, so the real numbers could be considerably higher.

On a separate note, while the numbers out of the Commonwealth Fund report are detailed and in many cases confirm my own numbers, some of theirs are off or outdated (granted, some of mine are as well). For instance:

--For New York, they list the number as 48,162. This is correct, but about half of those are actually in Medicaid

--They have Vermont down as 4,629, but again, slightly over half of those belong in the Medicaid column. On the up side, the combined total is actually almost 5,100 now.

--In Washington State, they list the number as 11,742, but that only includes those who have already paid, which is absurd and inconsistent with the other state reports. If you include those who have selected a plan but haven't happened to actually submit their first payment yet (and why would you when coverage doesn't start for over a month?), the number leaps to almost 44,000.

See ObamacareSignups.net for details, including direct links to cited sources.

Update: Thanks to ArcticStones for the latest updates to Oregon, Kentucky and Massachusetts! The charts are now slightly behind, but I'll update those over the weekend.