Connecticut: @AccessHealthCT breaks 100K QHP selections in first 20 days

Access Health CT, Connecticut's ACA exchange, is posting updates to their Open Enrollment Period (OEP) numbers every Friday. Last week they reported 99,952 Qualified Health Plan (QHP) selections during the first 13 days of the 2021 OEP, which sounds more impressive than it is, since 97,256 of those were current enrollees having their auto-renewals front-loaded; only 2,696 of them are actually new enrollees. Nothing wrong with that, of course.

This week, they report that they have 100,094 total QHP selections, of which 4,237 are new. On the surface this sounds off...shouldn't it be 101,493 total? I'm pretty sure the reason for the discrepancy is that not every current enrollee actually renews/re-enrolls for the following year. The exchange plugs them in as renewing, but they can still go in and actively cancel their renewal, which reduces the total a bit. In this case, it sounds like 1,399 current enrollees have done so over the past week. This gives a net increase of 142 over the past week, or 20 per day.

To be honest, I'm a litlte confused by AHCT's auto-renewal reporting methodology, since they held their monthly board meeting yesterday and posted the following:

Public Health Emergency (PHE) Status Update:

• PHE coverage extension end date remains January 31, 2021. No further extension announced by U.S. Department of Health & Human Services yet.
• Over 111k with coverage extended through January. High volume of projections for renewal planned to begin in December.
• Verification requirements extensions continue for enrollees for the duration of the PHE. Additional wave of communications to motivate completion of open items in progress.
• Planning underway to prepare for 2021 updates on income reporting guidance and future efforts to decommission extension changes.

Enrollment: To date, 11k enrollees purchased a 2021 policy. 86k yet to be renewed (Report results as of 11/16/2020)

Upcoming: 75k enrollees scheduled to automatically renew into a 2021 policy. Estimated to be complete by Nov. 25.