Wisconsin: As of this week, COVID-19 is more of a Trump County problem than a Clinton County problem.
For weeks now, I've been tracking the daily COVID-19 numbers at the county level in several states; particularly Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. While the pandemic hit the more densely-populated areas first (which tend to lean Democratic), the trendlines in Michigan and Wisconsin have been clearly moving towards the more rural, Republican-leaning counties increasing their share of the cases and corresponding deaths as time has passed.
Pennsylvania has been different--after a less dramatic shift from blue to red counties in late March, PA seems to have levelled off, with new cases holding pretty steady between the two.
It's been another week, so I figured I should post and update...and it's more of the same in all three cases. First up, Michigan:
On March 27th, 4 out of 5 COVID-19 cases in Michigan could be found in the Democratic-leaning counties. Since then, however, this has gradually shifted towards the Republican-leaning parts of the state; as of yesterday, the ratio was down from 4:1 to nearly 3:1 (the remaining cases can be found in state or federal prisons, or are cases where the victim is either from outside the state or their residence is unkown).
A similar pattern can be seen going by the urban/rural divide. Detroit has gone from holding nearly 1/3 of all cases in the state to only 1/5th, while the 80 counties outside of the Metro Detroit area (Wayne, Oakland and Macomb Counties) have increased their share of all cases from just one out of ten to more than one out of four.
Next, let's look at Pennsylvania. As I noted above, there's less going on here:
The split has been remarkably steady for the past three weeks. Again, this also holds when you look at it on an urban/rural line, although there has been a very slight shift away from Philadelphia and Pittsburgh (granted, this isn't quite accurate given that Pittsburgh only makes up a portion of Allegheny County):
Finally, there's Wisconsin...and here, the trend is absolutely clear:
And there you have it. In Wisconsin, the trend has gone from 7:3 cases in counties won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 to nearly a 50/50 split. Unless there's some dramatic reversal, the red counties will overtake the blue ones within a few days.
This is even more dramatic when comparing the number of cases found in the two biggest Democratic strongholds in the state (Madison and Milwaukee) to the surrounding areas, although again, those cities only compose a portion of their counties. Viewed in this light, you could argue that COVID-19 is already more of a "red area" problem than a blue one in Wisconsin:
I'm compiling similar data and charts for several other states, including Minnesota and Texas. I was hoping to do so for Florida and Georgia as well, but neither state makes it easy to grab case or death data earlier than the current day. Stay tuned...