Delaware: Preliminary 2019 #ACA rate hikes: 13.0%, but would likely have been ~3% w/out #ACASabotage

Delaware is pretty cut & dried: There's only one carrier, Highmark, offering ACA policies in the state. They're requesting a 13.0% average rate increase for 2019, and yes, they call out both the individual mandate being repealed and #ShortAssPlans being expanded by Trump and the GOP.

Unfortunately, they've redacted the specific percentages caused by those factors. The Urban Institute pegs it at 19.9%, but I err on the side of caution and only assume 2/3 of that amount, or right around...13%. If accurate, that means Highmark BCBSD would be keeping rates pretty much flat next year if those changes hadn't been made.

I should note that the filing does say that the "primary driver" is the "increasing medical/pharmacy services"...but keep in mind that the ACA's carrier tax is being holidayed again next year (that's a good 3% or so) as well as some other factors which pulled rates down, so that's not as significant as it may sound. However, just to err even more on the side of caution, I'll assume only half of the Urban Institute's projections and call it an even 10% impact, which would bring the non-sabotate increase down to around 3%.

Unsubsidized Delaware enrollees currently pay around $750/month on average, so that's roughly a $75/month hit per enrollee, or around $900 even for the year.