Louisiana: Here's the ~504,000 residents who could lose coverage, by Parish and Congressional District

UPDATED 2/19/17 with more recent data (final OE4 exchange enrollment data & February 2017 Medicaid expansion data):

Louisiana just expanded Medicaid via the Affordable Care Act last July, and as of Februay 16th had over 400,000 residents enrolled in the expansion program. All of those people would be kicked right back off of that coverage again if the ACA is repealed. In just 7 1/2 months...

  • 58,713​ Adults have received preventive healthcare or new patient services

  • Breast Cancer
    • 5,633 Women who've gotten screening or diagnostic breast imaging
    • 67 Women diagnosed with breast cancer as a result of this imaging
  • Colon Cancer
    • 5,412 Adults who received colon cancer screening
    • 1,536 Adults with colon polyps removed: colon cancer averted
    • 59 Adults diagnosed with colon cancer as a result of this screening
  • Newly Diagnosed Diabetes
    • 1,193 Adults newly diagnosed and now treated for Diabetes
  • Newly Diagnosed Hypertension
    • 2,954 Adults newly diagnosed and now treated for Hypertension

As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:

  • Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
  • Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates. Note that Louisiana's exchange QHPs dropped by a whopping 33% primarily due to cannibalization by the Medicaid expansion program of those in the 100-138% FPL income range.
  • Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
  • Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
  • Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
  • Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.

In the case of Louisiana143,000 people enrolled in exchange policies as of the end of January. Of these, I estimate around 103,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus the additional 400,000 enrolled in Medicaid expansion, for a total of just over 500,000 Louisianans kicked to the curb.