Illinois: Here's the ~918,000 residents who could lose coverage, by county
Illinois is pretty straightforward. Assuming 400,000 people enroll in exchange policies by the end of January (a modest 3% increase over last year), I estimate around 275,000 of them would be forced off of their private policy upon an immediate-effect full ACA repeal, plus the 643,000 enrolled in Medicaid expansion as of June 2016, for a total of just over 918,000 Illinoisians kicked to the curb.
As for the individual market, my standard methodology applies:
- Plug in the 2/01/16 QHP selections by county (hard numbers via CMS)
- Project QHP selections as of 1/31/17 based on statewide signup estimates. In Louisiana, I actually expect the number of exchange QHPs to drop by about 17% from last year, mainly due to cannibalization by the Medicaid expansion program of those in the 100-138% FPL income range.
- Knock 10% off those numbers to account for those who never end up paying their premiums
- Multiply the projected effectuated enrollees as of March by the percent expected to receive APTC subsidies
- Then knock another 10% off of that number to account for those only receiving nominal subsidies
- Whatever's left after that are the number of people in each county who wouldn't be able to afford their policy without tax credits.