UPDATE: State by State: 14 states ahead of expectations, 10 states behind as of 12/10/16

12/15/16: Updated w/Washington State data

As I noted after the 11/26 data was released, some key notes:

  • Most states are as of 12/10/16 (officially the end of the 6th week, even though it's "short" 2 days due to November starting on a Tuesday this year)
  • The red vertical line is where I expected each state to be as of 12/10/16...around 38% of where I project their final projected enrollments to be as of 1/31/17
  • For purposes of this graph, I'm defining "ahead" or "behind" as being plus or minus 2 percentage points.
  • South Dakota, Hawaii, Minnesota, Utah, Nebraska, Oregon, Wyoming, Wisconsin, Florida, Kansas, Kentucky, Pennsylvania, Montana and Alabama are significantly ahead of where I expected them to be at this point.
  • On the other hand, New Hampshire, Michigan, Alaska, Georgia, Indiana, Texas, Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi and especially Louisiana are all significantly behind so far.

Important Caveats:

  • Six states (MA, CT, CA, MD, RI & WA) can't really be counted as "ahead" because these states have already "pre-loaded" their automatic renewals of existing enrollees. These can't really be matched to the rest of the states until after December 19th, when all of the HC.gov auto-renewals should be added to 39 states.
  • Minnesota is a special case. They're "ahead" mainly because they have a unique "first come, first serve" enrollment cap policy this year. Not sure if that should count or not.
  • I tried to take various state-specific factors into account when making my projections, but screwed up on Louisiana, which expanded Medicaid; I thought I accounted for the "cannibalization" from exchange enrollments by Medicaid but it looks like I seriously underestimated the impact.
  • At the opposite end, I can't really count four states (DC, ID, NY & VT) as being "behind" because these states have provided no data at all yet (or only very limited numbers in the case of DC).

In terms of the largest states, aside from California (which, again, I can't really count yet), Florida is still well ahead of where I expected them to be as of 12/10, but not as dramatically as a couple of weeks ago. On the flip side, Texas is still behind my expectations, but has caught up somewhat.