CRUNCH TIME: (UPDATE: 3 DAYS) LEFT to enroll for January coverage

There's exactly 7 days just 3 days to go before the first major 2017 Open Enrollment Period deadline (the 12/15 deadline in most states for coverage starting January 1st), so let's see where things stand.

  • I've confirmed 2,903,199 QHP selections nationally, of which 2,137,717 are via the federal exchange and 765,482 are via the dozen state exchanges.
  • However, most of this only runs through November 26, and I still have no enrollment data at all for DC, Idaho, Maryland, New York, Vermont or Washington State.
  • estimate that the actual national total broke through 4.5 million last night, and should break 5.0 million by tomorrow (Friday) night.
  • Enrollments should have started ramping up dramatically as we go into the final few days before the big 12/15 deadline, culminating in around 7.7 million by the 15th.
  • After that, the auto-renewals should be tacked on somewhere around 12/17 - 12/18.

As recently as 11/26/16, enrollments on both the federal and most state exchanges was either pacing or somewhat ahead of my projections, with no "Trump Factor" to speak of. I won't know for sure whether this is still the case until the Week 5-6 Snapshot report is released, which likely won't be until next Wednesday.