Arizona: Approved *unsubsidized* 2017 indy mkt rate hikes: 57%

The ACA exchange in Arizona has had some pretty dramatic turns over the past month or so. When the dust settled, every county in the state will still have at least one carrier offering plans on the exchange...although only one. Anyway, today the AZ DOI joined Pennsylvania and Michigan in releasing their final approved rate hikes for both the individual and small group markets:

I wasn't quite sure how to handle three of the carriers. Aetna has 13,162 individual market enrollees total in Arizona. They're leaving the exchange, but are apparently keeping their plans available off-exchange. Without knowing how many of those 13K are on vs. off, I can't weight the rate hike, so I'm taking an educated guess that it's perhaps 1/4 of the total (around 3,100), with the other 10,000 having to shop for a new policy.

For Cigna, I know the enrollment for "Cigna Healthcare" but not for "Cigna Health & Life". This is irritating since it's also the only one of the carriers which is reducing their rates next year. However, according to their filing, they're only keeping a single Bronze plan available...off the exchange, which means that enrollment numbers are likely nominal and wouldn't impact the statewide average by more than a rounding error.

Finally, there's Phoenix Health Plans, which originally requested an insane 122% rate hike...and which was approved for an even more absurd 160%. However, Phoenix is actually dropping out of the exchange completely, making this a moot point for most of their 32,000 enrollees who'll have to find a new plan. According to the final filing, though, they are holding onto about 1,900 off-exchange catastrophic policy enrollees.

Assuming the above are all relatively accurate, that means unsubsidized AZ enrollees are looking at around a 57% average rate hike.

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On the Small Group side, I don't have enough time to track down the enrollment numbers, so I can't run a weighted average...but the unweighted average comes in at a pretty reasonable 4.2%. The range is from as low as a 7.7% reduction to a 17.4% increase.