HC.gov Week Nine Snapshot: 83K (8.61M cumulative); projecting 130K for Week 10

Some Guy, 12/30/15:

So what about this week? Well, it should play out very much the same: Practically all QHP selections going forward should be for new additions, and we have New Year's Eve and Day included. Sure enough, last year there were just 103K added to HC.gov from 12/27 - 01/02...slightly more than Christmas week.

Assuming this year follows a similar pattern, there should be roughly 80,000 people tacked onto the HC.gov total for Week 9, bringing the cumulative total up to just over 8.6 million.

If this does happen, then yes, I'll have to seriously re-evaluate my current 14.7 million OE3 projection...because that will suggest that the final 5 weeks are gonna play out a good 20% lower than my expectations.

And if that's the case, then instead of another 3.5 million new folks signing up, it'll only be around 2.8 million...bringing a grand total of right around 14.0 million even.

I should note that I am not dropping my "official" call by 700K just yet...but I'm putting this out there as a strong possibility. For the moment, let's just say I'm shifting from a hard number (14.7 million) to a range of anywhere between 14.0 - 14.7 million.

CMS, moments ago:

Health Insurance Marketplace Open Enrollment Snapshot - Week 9 • December 27, 2015 – January 2, 2016

Since Open Enrollment began on November 1, about 8.6 million consumers signed-up for health coverage through the HealthCare.gov platform or had their coverage automatically renewed. The Week 9 snapshot includes the New Year’s holiday.

“As the holiday season ends and people across the country set goals for a healthier 2016, we’re making sure they understand that there is still time to sign-up for quality and affordable health coverage through the Health Insurance Marketplaces,” said Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Sylvia Burwell. “For coverage starting on February 1, people must sign-up by the January 15 deadline.”

Sure enough: Just over 80,000 (83,297 to be precise), for a cumulative total of 8,608,322 million through 1/02/16.

For Week 10, things should pick up a little; I'm going to call it 130,000 from 1/03 - 1/09, for a cumulative total of 8.74 million.

After that, the final three weeks should ramp up again dramatically, although as I've noted before, the final week (8 days, actually) from 1/24 - 1/31 is the biggest unknown. If it ramps up the way Week 7 did (over 1.8 million for the mid-December deadline for January coverage), then my 14.7M target could still stand. On the other hand, if it ends up somewhat lackluster (last year only around 1.4 million enrolled in the final two weeks, which included an extra week-long "overtime" period which may or may not be repeated this year), the total could easily come up half a million short of that or more (thus the "range" change).

Anyway, here's the updated state-by-state numbers:

UPDATE: OK, here's the updated Graph: