UPDATED: California: A mini-estimate: 1.27M thru 1/11?

As I noted Saturday, CoveredCA is supposedly going to finally release their full, updated ACA enrollment data between now and Wednesday. So far they've only said that 144K new QHP enrollees have been added, and even that only includes 11/15 - 12/15. They haven't released any data on renewals of the 1.12 million 2014 enrollees yet, nor have they issued any further updates on new additions since Dec. 15th, 4 full weeks ago.

I've noted several times that I'm expecting them to announce roughly 960K renewals (active + automatic) from California, or around 85% of current enrollees to be renewed/re-enrolled. If that proves accurate, that would bring their 12/15 total up to around 1.1 million.

That just leaves the post-12/15 new additions. I don't know how up to date this week's announcement will be; presumably it will run through the end of 2014 (12/31) or through, say, Sunday night (01/11). If it runs through any other date, of course, my estimates will have to be adjusted accordingly, but if it's one of those, here's my guesses:

  • 12/16/14 - 12/31/14: Around 140,000 new QHPs, or around 1.24 million total
  • 12/16/14 - 01/11/15: Around 170,000 new QHPs, or around 1.27 million total

Obviously the real unknown here is the renewal/autorenewal number. If it's fairly close to 85%, I should be pretty close on my total. If I've missed some major factor about CA's exchange (case in point: Washington State was set up so that some people would be auto-renewed if they took no action, but not all of them...meaning that only about 80K out of 132K ended up renewing total (so far).

think that CoveredCA is set up like most of the other exchanges, with everyone who takes no action being autorenewed, but if I'm wrong that 960K could end up being considerably off.

UPDATE: OK, they just answered my question:



WHAT:       Covered California will discuss tax penalties for the uninsured. Covered California and the Department of Health Care Services (DHCS) will also release enrollment data through January 11th.

WHO:         Executive Director Peter V. Lee, Covered California

WHEN:       Tuesday, Jan. 13, 2015, at 9:30 a.m. PST

OK, that's good, this should bring CA's data right up to date through last night, which is as current as I can hope for.

Again, if I'm correct, CoveredCA should announce around 1.27M through 1/11/15, which would leave New York as the only major hole left in the enrollment data.