Maryland: 83K QHPs, 61.5K Medicaid: STILL enrolling at a faster rate than last year!

As expected, the post-deadline slowdown has started:

Latest @MarylandConnect #s: 144,313 total enrollments; 82,819 QHPs; 61,494 Medicaid. Weekly report out Monday #GetCoveredMD

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) December 26, 2014

Latest enrollment numbers as of 12/25

— MD Health Connection (@MarylandConnect) December 26, 2014

Maryland's previous update, which included their 12/18 deadline for January coverage was just shy of 80K QHPs, or an average of 2,353 enrollments per day since 11/15.

Over the next 7 days, they enrolled an additional 2,832 people, or 404 per day...17% of the January-start period. This is exactly what I'd expected, and is exactly why The Graph shows a dramatic levelling off nationally this week after the massive spike over the past week or so.

HOWEVER, here's what's eyebrow-raising: Even with that drop-off, Maryland is still enrolling people at a 20% faster rate than they did all of last year:

  • 2014 Open Enrollment Period (10/1/13 - 4/19/14): 67,757 / 200 days = 338/day
  • 2015 Open Enrollment Period (post-Dec. surge: 12/19/14 - 12/25/14): 404/day

Even more amazing yet: Bear in mind that the 2014 average includes both the December 2013 and March/April 2014 surges, while this past week includes Christmas Eve and Day, where enrollments likely dropped off to a crawl.

This is very encouraging for 2015 total enrollments. Why? Because right now, The Graph is projecting new enrollments nationally to go up about 1.1 million between 12/20 - 1/15, or around 41,000 per day (remember, now that we're over the renewal/auto-renewal hump for the vast majority of states, just about all additional enrollees going forward should be newly added).

My estimate of the national total as of 12/19 is 8.65 million in 35 days, or around 247K/day (including autorenewals). 17% of that would be 42,000 per day.

IF the Maryland trend holds true and is representative nationally (and there's no guarantee of either of these), then it suggests that my projection through January 15th should be about right.

I'll have to see what the post-December surge numbers are for a few other states before coming to any conclusions, however.