Oklahoma 2015 Rates: 12.2% avg. increase (weighted); 5.6% net QHP increase since 4/19?

OK, I don't know what the requested rate changes for 2015 were in Oklahoma, but this appears to be the final word:

Health Insurers Submit Exchange Rates for 2015

OKLAHOMA CITY –Oklahomans shopping for individual health insurance policies through the federal exchange will be able to choose from six different companies offering multiple plans. Rate renewals for 2015 policies range from a decrease of 9.1 percent to an increase of 29 percent. The actual rate for an individual will depend on several factors, including age, geographical location and tobacco use.

“In the second year of the federal exchange, carriers have adjusted their rates to adequately reflect their utilization costs, comply with federal rules on medical loss ratios and reflect revisions to their provider networks,” said Oklahoma Insurance Commissioner John D. Doak.

There will be six issuers of qualified health plans (QHPs) in the federally-facilitated individual marketplace for 2015: Aetna, Coventry, Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oklahoma, GlobalHealth, Assurant/Time and CommunityCare. In the Small Business Health Options Program, or SHOP Marketplace, there are three issuers: Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oklahoma, GlobalHealth and CommunityCare.

Federal exchange rates are approved by the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. The public rate and form health filings can be viewed through the search tool.

Individuals may sign up for new coverage or renew existing coverage during the open enrollment period, which runs from Nov. 15, 2014-Feb. 15, 2015, on www.healthcare.gov.

I had to do some digging to get the actual rate requests for the individual companies and then run a weighted average. As far as I can tell, there were 4 companies operating on the HC.gov exchange in Oklahoma in 2014 (Aetna, Coventry, BCBSOK and Time Insurance, and they're adding 2 more this year (GlobalHealth and CommunityCare).

According to the filing PDFs I found using the linked search tool, it looks like the weighted average should be:

  • Coventry: 661 current enrollees / 3.3% decrease (weighted)
  • Aetna: 169 current enrollees / 9.1% decrease (weighted)
  • Blue Cross Blue Shield of OK: 70,455 current enrollees / 12.0% increase (weighted)
  • Time Insurance: 1,786 current enrollees / 27% increase (weighted)

So, that's should be: -0.0003 - 0.0002 + 0.1157 + 0.0066 = +12.2% on average (weighted)

On the one hand, unlike states like California, Rhode Island and Connecticut, that's a pretty disappointing increase.

On the other hand, if I'm reading those "covered lives" numbers correctly, there's currently 73,071 QHP enrollees via Healthcare.Gov in Oklahoma...which is significant since the official tally as of 4/19 was only 69,221...an increase of 3,850 (or +5.6%).

If accurate, this is even more impressive when you consider that a good 10% of that original 69,221 didn't pay, so the actual "covered lives" number was really more like 62,200 at the end of the open enrollment period...suggesting that the actual increase is more like 17% since April.

If anyone familiar with the Oklahoma insurance situation can correct or confirm this, please let me know ASAP, thanks!