Connecticut: 250K total; est. 87K QHPs & 164K Medicaid

Sometimes you just have to go straight to the source. I flat-out asked Access Health CT (Connecticut's ACA exchange) if they could provide an off-season enrollment update, and here's their response:

@charles_gaba our total as of July 22nd is 250,633 overall enrolled. That's all I can share now, but more coming near OE

— Access Health CT (@AccessHealthCT) August 2, 2014

They weren't able to provide a breakdown between private QHPs and Medicaid/CHIP enrollment, but I can make a pretty good guess.

According to the final HHS report, Connecticut's official exchange QHP total as of 4/19 was 79,192, and Medicaid determinations were 138,908, for a combined total of 218,100. Since then, this total has gone up 32,533. The QHP/Medicaid ratio during open enrollment was roughly 36/64, which, if consistent during the off season would mean around 11,700 more QHPs to around 20,800 Medicaid enrollees.

However, since QHPs are limited to Qualifying Life Events during the off season, whereas Medicaid/CHIP enrollments have no such restrictions, the odds are that the ratio is much more lopsided towards the Medicaid side.

The average of the other dozen or so states which have provided off-season data seems to be ranging somwhere between 22-30% of the open enrollment average. In Connecticut's case, this would range somewhere between 90-120 per day, or somewhere between 8,500 - 11,000 between 4/20 - 7/22.

Erring on the side of caution, I'll go with the lower bound on this and call it 8,300, for roughly 87,500 total vs. 163.6K Medicaid enrollees. I'm hesitant to enter this into my projection spreadsheet, however, since this is already based on the current projection.