Narrowed 4/15 Exchange QHP Projection: 7.75M - 7.85M (UPDATED x2)

A few days ago I gave a final 4/15 exchange QHP estimate range from between 7.7 - 7.9M, with an outside shot of 8M.

Today I'm narrowing my projection within that range; unless there's a really big absolute-last-minute spike today and tomorrow (which is conceivable), it's looking like the final tally will end up somewhere between 7.8 - 7.9M. 7.75 - 7.85M I suspect the 8M mark will remain tantilizingly out of reach.

On the other hand, if I've seriously lowballed here and it does end up around, say, 7.95M, it's just barely possible that a handful of stragglers from Nevada and Oregon (along with paper applications in Florida?) could just barely drag the 4/30 total over the 8M line (Nevada has actually extended their "started by 3/31" policy all the way out until May 30, while Oregon has extended their full enrollment period out to 4/30).

As always, I'll be more than happy if it turns out I've undershot the mark. Hitting the 8M mark would be a very nice bonus, but even if it does end up at around 7.8M, that's still likely to result in at least 7.25M paid enrollments or more in the end using my 93% rule of thumb, which would still beat both the low and high projections by the CBO last year. Heck, I'm pretty sure the paid enrollment total was already destined to be above 7M even at the 7.5M mark (93% of 7.5M = 6.975M).

UPDATE 4/14 10:12am: OK, I've knocked all of the numbers back by 50K mostly out of personal pride reasons; if I'm gonna be off, I'd rather it be on the low side.

UPDATE 4/14/ 10:38am: Oh for heaven's sake. Thanks to contributor icowrich for bringing this to my attention:

According to this article over at the Motley Fool, Nevada and Oregon are not the only states going beyond 4/15 (oddly, the MF article lists Oregon under a special "case by case" category, even though they've clearly stated that they have full open enrollment out until April 30). In addition to Nevada and Oregon, the Florida "paper applications in by 4/7" rule applies to all 36 states running via, and apparently Minnesota and Maryland have bumped their extension period to May 1st while Colorado's is all the way out until May 31st???

I was unaware of these last-minute extensions of the extensions, but if these are accurate, the final tally may be higher than I figured after all...

ACA extensions: second chances
For some, it was as if they had waited in line to get into a new restaurant, finally gotten a table, and then been told by the waiter that the kitchen was closed. Still, if you were caught in a or state-exchange holdup because you couldn't access overloaded exchanges, you may have a second chance coming.

The new federal deadline -- a special enrollment period – already allowed registrations delayed by exchange-related problems to be finished as late as April 30 for those who submitted a paper application by April 7. That extension applied to individuals living in states where insurance enrollment under the Affordable Care Act is conducted through the federal exchange.

But other extensions are also available in states with their own exchanges, as well as in the District of Columbia. In each case, individuals must have started their application before midnight on March 31. What follow are new dates, as compiled by HealthPocket.

California: April 15
Colorado: May 31
Kentucky: April 15
Maryland: May 1
Massachusetts: April 15 (in special cases, June 30)
Minnesota: May 1
Nevada: May 30
New York: April 15
District of Columbia: April 15

In a number of other states, officials have promised an extension but not specified a new deadline. Others are responding to the logjam by creating a one-on-one special assistance period, supplying consultants to help the individual directly. The states falling into these two categories are Connecticut, Hawaii, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermont, and Washington.