Final Exchange QHP Projection: 7.7M - 7.9M (possible 8M after all???)

Yeah, I know, I keep bouncing around on this; first I thought 8M was feasible, then I backtracked. However, let's do some simple math.

  • Obviously it wasn't exactly 7.1M on the nose at midnight on 3/31. Let's assume an overage of, say, 20K at a minimum.
  • It's also safe to assume that it was slightly over 7.5M as of midnight last night; let's say 20K there as well.
  • That means that in the first 9 days, QHP enrollments averaged 500K / 9 = 55.5K per day
  • I'd say a final weekend mini-surge is also likely for those who wait until the absolute last possible moment, which should cancel out what I'm assuming is a natural dropoff throughout the week. So...figure something like 30K/day today and tomorrow, then back up to 60K/day for the last 4 days. That's 300K added to the existing 7.52K, or 7.82M.

So, as my final projection for 4/15, I'm going with: Somewhere between 7.7M - 7.9M, with an outside chance of squeaking by the 8M mark after all (wishful thinking?)