California: Exchange QHPs up to 1.21M as of 2am this morning

OK, here we go: CoveredCA just announced their exchange QHP tally as of 2am this morning: 1,209,791

Huge consumer interest - As of 2 am, 3-31, #CoveredCA has enrolled 1,209,791 people in health plans. Open enrollment ends @ 11:59 pm tonight

— Covered California (@CoveredCA) March 31, 2014

The bad news is that this is about 70,000 lower than I estimated (1.28M), which is a bit disappointing.

The good news is that they're still chugging along without any outages (that I know of), and HC.gov just tweeted the following:

Record volume on http://t.co/eTfU7hBJUR today. 1.2M visits through noon and 125k+ concurrent users at peak so far today. #GetCoveredNow

— HealthCare.gov (@HealthCareGov) March 31, 2014

HC.gov had 2 million visitors on Saturday & Sunday combined, and had 160K enrollments on Sunday alone. Assuming around 130K on Saturday, that's 290K enrollments out of 2M visits.

They've had 1.2 million visitors through noon today, even with the site being partly crippled for half of that time.

It's conceivable that the Federal site could make up that 70K difference and then some.

Anyway, I'm not really bothering updating the spreadsheet or the projection table anymore today. This news might drop it to the low end of the projection (6.9 million), but otherwise I'm not too concerned.

Barring any further significant, several-hour outages at either HC.gov, CoveredCA or WAHealthplanFinder, I still think 6.9 - 7.0M are doable by midnight.