What the heck is going on with New York???

I ran into a similar issue a month ago, and thought I had straightened it out, but there's a major disconnect between the official HHS numbers for New York and the NY State of Health press release data.

According to HHS, New York only enrolled 33,328 people in February:

• Thru 02/01: 211,290
• Thru 03/01: 244,618

However, here's the official QHP enrollment numbers according to NY State of Health:

• Thru 02/10: 251,306
• Thru 02/17: 266,177
• Thru 02/24: 276,681
• Thru 03/10: 299,836

Does anyone want to explain to me how HHS can list NY as having fewer than 245K QHPs on March 1st when NY State of Health says they had 251K, 266K and 277K as of February 10th, 17th and 24th respectively?

This is no minor issue--New York has the 3rd largest population in the country and is the 2nd largest state-run exchange. If you take the difference between the 2/24 and 3/10 numbers, divide by 14 and you get 1,654 per day during that period. Add 5 days of that and according to NY State of Health, the correct number as of March 1st was actually around 285,000.

This means that either NY's exchange is overreporting by over 40,000, or HHS just underreported NY by 40,000.

New York has never said anything about a "paid vs. unpaid" split, and all of the press releases are very clear that these numbers don't include Medicaid, so I have no clue what's going on.

Until I straighten this out, I can't even begin to try and attempt a projection for March enrollment...and whether you support or oppose the law, 40,000 is a big number to be off by.