BREAKING: 6.4M QHPs as of 12/19 w/1.9M Renewals...on HC.gov ONLY!!

Holy Smokes!!

Again, I expected around 5.83 million QHP selections via HC.gov as of 12/19, including manual renewals, autorenewals and new additions.

The actual number? 6.4 Million. I underestimated by 9%.

More to come...

• 2% of autorenewals ran into issues due to the existing plan being discontinued/etc; working on those
• Of the 6.4 million total (via HC.gov), that's 1.92 million new enrollees, around 1.56 million manual renewals ("high 30s" %-wise) and about 2.91 million automatic renewals
• In other words, as of December 15th, the HC.gov total (NOT including autorenewals) was around 1.92M + 1.56M = 3.48 million as of 12/15.
• My projection through 12/15 for HC.gov was....3.52 million. In other words, I was over by about 1.1% not including autorenewals, but underestimated the autorenewals by about 660,000 people. I figured around 3 million autorenewals nationally, with 75% of them (2.25 million) coming from the federal exchange.
• In other words, out of 6.7 million current enrollees, it looks like the vast majority are being renewed (whether manually or automatically)...much more than the 5.8 million that HHS had estimated, and even higher than the 6.1 million that I was expecting.