Minnesota: *Final* avg. unsubsidized 2025 #ACA rate change: +8.8% (updated)

Originally posted 6/18/24

via the Minnesota Commerce Dept:

Individual Market PROPOSED Average Rate Changes

The summary table below provides an overview of proposed average rate changes for plan year 2025 in the individual health insurance market as reported by the insurers. 

It is important to note that while these are initial rates as proposed and filed, rates are subject to review by the Departments of Commerce and Health. Final approved rates may vary from these proposed rates for many reasons. 

Proposed rates do not reflect the impact of federal premium tax credits that are available to eligible Minnesotans who purchase their coverage through MNsure. 

Additionally, the change in actual premium a consumer will pay in 2025 can vary from the proposed average change due to factors such as the specific plan selected, geographic rating area and age.

Small Group Market Proposed Average Rate Changes for Plan Year 2025

The summary table below provides an overview of the proposed average rate changes for plan year 2025 in the small group health insurance market, as reported by the insurers.  

It is important to note these are the initial rates proposed by the insurers and filed with the Departments. Rates are subject to review and approval by the Departments and the final approved rates may vary from these proposed rates for many reasons. 

Additionally, the actual rate change a consumer will experience in 2025 can vary from the average – with factors such as specific plan, geographic rating area, age, and renewal date playing a major role. 

Unfortunately, as usual, Minnesota's SERFF rate filing database doesn't seem to include any actual enrollment information, so I can't run a proper weighted average rate change for the small group market at all (the unweighted average increase is +9.4%). For the individual market, I'm basing the weighted 8.7% average increase on on-exchange enrollment only as of June 2024. I'm operating on the assumption that perhaps 90% of Minnesota's QHP enrollment is on-exchange these days, and that the other 10% (perhaps 15,000 people?) breaks out in a roughly similar ratio.

UPDATE 9/30/24: The Minnesota Dept. of Commerce has posted the final/approved rate filings for 2025, and while they still don't make it easy to find the number of off-exchange enrollees, they do clarify the total market sizes for both the individual and small group markets:

Minnesota Department of Commerce approves 2025 rates for individual and small group health insurance marketplaces in Minnesota

The Minnesota Department of Commerce today announced its approval of 2025 rates for Minnesotans who buy small-group and individual health insurance either through MNsure or directly through their health insurer. These rates are for 2025 plans available starting November 1, 2024.  

Commerce annually reviews health insurance rates to ensure plans are in compliance with Minnesota and federal law. The plans available during open enrollment this year include provisions passed in law to lower consumers’ health care costs and simplify the shopping experience.

Commerce encourages all Minnesotans who will be renewing their health insurance coverage for 2025 to take the opportunity to shop around. Many consumer protections have been put into place to assist Minnesota families with affordability – from continued federal subsidies that cap premiums at no more than 8.5% of their annual income – to utilizing MNsure to easily compare plans in their area to ensure families purchase coverage that fits their needs and budget.

"We encourage Minnesotans to start their health insurance shopping at MNsure because of the services available to help consumers explore options and choose the best coverage for themselves and their families,” said Commerce Commissioner Grace Arnold. “This year, consumers who shop for coverage on MNsure will find additional health plan options that are simpler and easier for people to understand.” 

Commerce Deputy Commissioner of Insurance Julia Dreier said, “The plans on MNsure all offer essential benefits that Minnesotans need, such as preventive care, emergency services, drug benefits and outpatient care.”   

Approved health insurance rates for 2025 

Details of approved health insurance rates for the 2025 Individual and Small Group markets: 

Individual market: Average increases range from 1.95% to 11.56% across five health plans for the 186,000 Minnesotans who buy insurance in the individual market. 

Small group market: Average rate changes range from a decline of 6.29% to an increase of 15.82% for the 206,000 Minnesotans covered by small group plans.  

In 2025, Minnesotans will continue to have at least two insurance carriers offering individual market plans in every county, with most counties having three or four carriers to choose from. Every county will also have at least 30 health plan options for individual buyers to choose from among the insurance carriers. Tax credits are available through MNsure to help eligible individuals and families purchase the coverage that is right for them. 

Most of the rate changes are nominal, although the overall effect is that average rate hikes are actually going up slightly more than requested on both the individual and small group markets: 8.8% (weighted) and 9.5% (unweighted) respectively.

It's also worth noting that Minnesota's off-exchange individual market is larger than I thought...only 72% of its total indy market is on-exchange: