New Jersey: Preliminary avg. unsubsidized 2025 #ACA rate changes: +7.3% (unweighted)

New Jersey individual & small group market carriers are asking for unweighted average rate increases of 7.3% and 4.5% respectively for 2025. However, the unweighted averages don't tell the whole story--the carriers are asking for rate hikes ranging from as low as 3.8% to as high as 16.2% on the individual market, and from as low as an 18.8% reduction to a 12.3% increase for small group plans.

As is the case with far too many states these days, most of the rate filing memorandums are heavily redacted in New Jersey, making it nearly impossible to get ahold of the actual enrollment numbers, which means I have no way of running a weighted average on either market.

I should note that the 433,000 estimate for New Jersey's total individual market is based on the assumption that 90% of it is via the ACA exchange, with only 10% being enrolled off-exchange.

It's also worth noting that Oxford Health Insurance appears to be dropping out of NJ's individual market (although it may just be that they aren't showing up on the federal Rate Review site due to only offering off-exchange policies), while one of their divisions (Oxford Health Plans) as well as Oscar Garden State appear to be leaving the state's small group market as well.