#COVID19 Data: Nightly update of the sick and the dead.

Since tracking and analyzing data is what I'm best known for...and since I'm mostly stuck sitting in front of the computer all day whether I like it or not these days anyway...I've started my own daily COVID-19 spreadsheet.

Again, I'm not the one who compiled the data itself--many other teams with far better resources than I have are doing that--but I'm pulling their work together and adding some additional context, such as per capita info by state/territory.

I also include the partisan lean of every state, which may sound cynical or tasteless...unless you've been paying attention to the news of late. That's exactly how Donald Trump sees it; he's literally giving red states whatever resources they ask for (or more) while deliberately starving the blue states (or even some purple states if their governors aren't "nice" enough to him) or giving them scraps.

Nationally:

  • 3.4 million Americans have been tested for COVID-19 (over 1% of the population)
  • Another 29,500 Americans tested positive today. 677,000 have tested positive to date (0.9 per thousand)
  • Another 2,200 died today.  Over 34,600 have died to date...over 1 per 10,000 Americans. See important note below re. New York's totals.
  • The apparent U.S. mortality (based only positive tests) continues to rise and is now 5.1% (see note below re. NY).

New York:

IMPORTANT (via WorldoMeters): 

Following new CDC guidelines: "As of April 14, 2020, CDC case counts and death counts include both confirmed and probable cases and deaths. This change was made to reflect an interim COVID-19 position statement issued by the Council for State and Territorial Epidemiologists on April 5, 2020. The position statement included a case definition and made COVID-19 a nationally notifiable disease.

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19" [source]

This change is a further example of one of the many reasons why the label "confirmed cases" (used by some to designate total cases) is incorrect (see definitions for more details). The US CDC (and Worldometer) has always used the label "Total Cases." Canada is another example where the "total number includes publicly reported confirmed and probable cases [source]

On April 14, New York City reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent".

From April 14 onward, New York City has provided - and will continue to provide -  the updated number of probable deaths in its daily reports.

In other words, New York's total cases and death toll were increased by an additional 3,778 people at once today in addition to today's deaths.

  • 550,000 New Yorkers have been tested to date...2.8% of the state population
  • Another 7,600 tested positive today. 226,000 have tested positive to date (over 1.1% of the population)
  • Another 606 New Yorkers died today. When the 3,778 miscategorized prior deaths are added, COVID-19 has now killed more than 16,100 New Yorkers. That's more than 5 times as many as died in the 9/11 terrorist attacks. This also means that New York's apparent mortality rate has instantly jumped up to over 7.1%.

Michigan (my home state):

  • 94,000 Michiganders have been tested to date (9.4 per thousand)
  • 1,200 more Michiganders tested positive today. Over 29,000 have tested positive total (2.9 per thousand)
  • Another 172 Michiganders died today. Nearly 2,100 have died to date.
  • Michigan still holds the record* for the highest apparent mortality at 7.2%. This is mostly due to a dearth of testing, but is still extremely disheartening.

*(except for the Northern Mariana Islands)

Other States/Territories:

  • South Dakota once again has the highest 3-day case increase (51%) as the fallout from the Smithfield pork processing plant continues...but something big must have happened in Wyoming today as well, as their positive case total jumped 46% from 275 to 401. I don't see any obvious news stories about it yet, however. No other state/territory has seen more than a 29% 3-day increase.
  • Death tolls increased by 33% or more over the past 3 days in:
    • Wyoming
    • Connecticut
    • New York (due mainly to the addition of the prior deaths noted above)
    • District of Columbia
    • Maryland
    • New Hampshire
    • Massachusetts
    • West Virginia
    • New Jersey
    • Rhode Island
    • Maine
    • Ohio
    • New Mexico
    • Pennsylvania
    • Virginia Iowa
    • North Carolina
    • Missouri
    • Texas
    • Indiana
    • Illinois
    • Minnesota
    • Florida
    • Nebraska
    • Alabama

There was also another another 83 cases reported among the Navajo Nation, five more of whom died today.