Damn I was close: My 2019 ACA premium projections vs. actual 2019 ACA premiums

Earlier today I once again dusted off my ACA Individual Market Rate Change project for the 5th year, as the state of Maryland has issued their preliminary 2020 premium rate filings. With that in mind, I decided to go back and look at my personal projections for average 2019 premiums (from June - October of 2018) and compare them against the actual average 2019 premiums as reported by the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid 2019 Open Enrollment Period Public Use Files.

Bottom line: I was pretty damned close, coming within 2% of the actual average premium in 27 states and within 5% in 42 states. Nationally, I was off by 2.0%, projecting an average monthly premium of $611 vs. the $599 actual average.

The outliers were:

  • In Colorado, Delaware, North Dakota, New York and Vermont, I overestimated by 5 - 9%
  • In Maine, Georgia, Tennessee, New Mexico, Idaho and Connecticut, I underestimated by 5 - 12%.

I'm sure I could figure out where I was off in some of those states if I put my mind to it, but it doesn't really matter that much. Anyway, here's the full table: