Indiana: APPROVED 2019 #ACA rate changes: 2.6% higher, but likely would've DROPPED 7.4% w/out #ACASabotage

Back in June, Indiana's 3 individual market carriers submitted their requested 2019 ACA rate changes, which averaged around 5.1%. At the time I also pegged the impact of #ACASabotage on 2019 rates (mandate repeal + #ShortAssPlans) at around 13 percentage points.

This week I've found Indiana's approved 2019 rate changes for the individual and small group markets. State regulators cut the overall average increase for the individual market in half, to just 2.6%:

I'm also adjusting my #ACASabotage impact estimate down to a flat 10% in any state where I don't have solid evidence that it's higher than that. This suggests that in the absence of the ACA mandate being repealed and #ShortAssPlans being expanded, Indiana would likely be looking at average premium reductions of around 7.4% or so.