2019 Rate Hikes: VERY early national projection (4 states only): ~16.1% w/2018 sabotage, ~3.8% without

Normally, I don't start posting natoinal projections for my annual Rate Hike Project until I have at least filing data for at least a dozen or so states because the national weighted average jumps around so much early on. A "national average" of, say, 10% based on numbers from, say, Vermont, Wyoming and the District of Columbia (collective population: 1.9 million people) is gonna change radically once you add California or Florida to the mix if they're looking at a 20% hike, for example.

Having said that, seeing how advocacy organization Protect Our Care has decided to launch their own version of my Rate Hike Project, and seeing how I do have preliminary 2019 rate increase projections from at one large state (Virginia) and two mid-sized states (Maryland and Oregon), I've decided to go ahead and start posting the national projections early, with a major caveat that the national average will likely change dramatically until at least 2/3 of the states have been plugged in.

Of course, aside from that, the averages within each state will also change dramatically over the summer and into the fall as carriers modify their rate filings, jump in or out of rating areas and/or entire states and so forth, as happens every year right up until the final contracts have to be signed for the following year in late September.

With all that in mind, here's a very early look at the "national" picture across 4 states: Maryland, Oregon, Vermont and Virginia: