2018 Rate Hikes: New Hampshire

New Hampshire's a bit of a head-scratcher this year: Of the three carriers on the individual exchange next year (each of whcih has a significant chunk of the market), Centene is requesting virtually no rate increases whatsoever...while the other two are asking to raise their rates by over 40% apiece.

Even more odd: Harvard Pilgrim's 42.5% seems to assume the worst regarding CSRs/mandate enforcement...yet Matthew Thornton (BCBS) is asking for 45.3% while assuming CSRs will be paid.

Finally, Kaiser assumes around a 10% Silver rate increase in NH if CSRs aren't paid, which translates into about 5.6% spread across the entire membership. Result: 29.1% if CSRs are paid, 34.7% if they aren't.

UPDATE: This press release from the New Hampshire Insurance Dept. suggests that the CSR issue may be an even bigger deal in NH than I thought:

...however, since that 43% refers to the median increase, not the average increase, I'm gonna leave this one alone for the moment. The larger point is the same: Rate hikes will be ugly in some states whether CSRs are paid or not, but a lot worse if they aren't.