2018 Rate Hikes: Georgia (early look)

Including Georgia, I've now compiled initial 2018 unsubsidized individual market rate hike requests for 17 states...and Georgia's carriers are asking for by far the highest overall average increase, even assuming no Trump/GOP sabotage tax.

There appear to be four carriers which have filed to sell individual market plans in Georgia next year: Alliant, Ambetter (aka Celtic, aka Centene...for God's sake, pick one name, guys, willya??), Anthem Blue Cross Blue Shield and Kaiser Health Plan.

In three cases, the wording of the filing letter seems to indicate that the requested increases assume that CSR reimbursement payments will be made in 2018 and that the individual mandate penalty will be enforced. The exception to this is Alliant Health Plan, which assumes the mandate won't be enforced, but when it comes to CSR reimbursements is pretty confusingly worded--there's no mention one way or other, but there is a note stating that the filing includes two different plan listings: One which will be offered if CSR payments are made, the other if CSR payments aren't made. I'm not quite sure how to categorize this so I'm listing it under "no/partial TrumpTax" for the moment.

When all 4 are plugged in that way, the weighted average for 423,000 enrollees comes to 29.2% overall.

As for the "FULL Trump Tax" variant, the Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that in Georgia specifically, cutting off CSR payments would require an additional 23 point rate hike next year, assuming none of the 4 carriers dropped participation altogether. Added on top of the 29.2% "no/partial sabotage" increase, that would come to an ugly 52.2% requested rate increase. Ouch.