Get your Data Geek On: CMS releases OE4 QHP enrollment BY ZIP CODE!

For the past couple of weeks I've been compiling the county-level data across various states for just how many people are at risk of losing healthcare coverage if the Republican Party actually does follow through with repealing the Affordable Care Act. The main numbers are the subsidized QHP enrollees and the Medicaid Expansion enrollees.

What people really want, though, given the politics of the situation, are these numbers by Congressional District. Unfortunately, I can't provide that, which is why I'm going with County level data for now.

HOWEVER, this morning, CMS provided a major tool for getting these numbers at the CD level: ZIP CODE breakout of the number of QHP selections through 12/24 for the 39 states on the federal exchange.

There's some major caveats here, of course:

  • Bad: It doesn't include any of the Medicaid expansion enrollees...just private QHP enrollees.
  • Bad: It only covers 39 states; there's no data here for the 12 state-based exchanges.
  • Bad: It only runs through 12/24/16; these numbers will likely increase by about 15% by the end of open enrollment on 1/31.
  • Good: On the other hand, most of that extra 15% will be cancelled out by people simply failing to pay their first premium anyway (about 10% of QHP selections never pay up)
  • Good: Also, it does break the numbers out by subsidized/unsubsidized enrollees. Since subsidized enrollees are the main focus here, that's important.

The biggest headache, of course, will be to piece together exactly which zip codes belong in which Congressional District...but I'll leave that up to others. That's irrelevant for states like Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming, since they only have a single CD for the state anyway.

Bon Appétit!!