UPDATE: HC.gov Week Seven Projection: 4.3 Million QHPs (auto-renewals INCLUDED)

As expected, the December Surge ramped up in Week Six, although I overestimated the curve somewhat:

  • Week 6 Projection: 1.50 Million / Actual: 1.33 Million (over by 13%)
  • Cumulative Projection: 4.34 Million / Actual: 4.17 Million (over by 4%)

Given the crazy developments of the past day or so, combined with the auto-renewal factor, things are kind of fuzzy this week. I'm gonna hold tight and assume roughly 4.3 million QHPs including auto-renewals will be added to the mix by Saturday, bringing HC.gov up to a total of 8.5 million by Saturday, December 19th.

However, there's a major caveat here: I have no idea how many auto-renewals will be added, so I could easily be off by as much as a half a million or so this week.

Update 12/18/15: Not really an update so much as a clarification: I'm guessing active QHP selections for this week via HC.gov could run anywhere between 1.0 - 2.0 million, plus another 2.5 - 3.5 million automatic renewals, for a weekly total of between 3.5 - 5.5 million.

REMEMBER, as always, that this only includes the 38 states included on the federal exchange; when you throw in the other 13 running their own exchanges, the grand total (assuming I'm in the ballpark) should be roughly 11.3 million QHPs nationally by the end of the week.

Nationally, my rough guess for this week is something close to the following:

  • Sunday, 12/13: 360K nationally (270K HC.gov)
  • Monday, 12/14: 460K nationally (350K HC.gov)
  • Tuesday, 12/15: 780K nationally (600K HC.gov)
  • Wednesday, 12/16: 1.80M* nationally* (1.40M HC.gov) (*400K active + 1.40M auto-renewals?)
  • Thursday, 12/17: 2.10M* nationally (1.60M HC.gov) (*400K active + 1.70M auto-renewals?)
  • Friday, 12/18: 80K nationally (60K HC.gov)
  • Saturday, 12/19: 70K nationally (50K HC.gov)
  • Weekly Total: 5.65M nationally (4.33M HC.gov)
  • Cumulative Total: 11.30M nationally (8.50M HC.gov)

Here's what I expect The Graph to look like through then: