UPDATED: HC.gov Week Five Projection: 840K (2.88 Million Cumulative)

I've decided to start breaking out my official weekly projections for the upcoming week out separately from my analysis of the previous week; this way I'll have a "clean" entry to link to for all projections.

As I noted this afternoon, I came in 6.3% under for Week Four, making me exactly 1% under the actual cumulative total for the first 4 weeks:

  • Week 4 Projection: 370K / Actual: 395K
  • Cumulative Projection: 2.02 Million / 2.04 Million

Based on this, I'm once again bumping up my Week Five projection a bit, from 600K even to 670K for 11/29 - 12/05. If accurate, that will bring the grand HC.gov total up to 2.71 Million as of Saturday, December 5th. It should also bring the national total up to roughly 3.56 Million.

UPDATE 12/03/15: OK, strike that. This has been nagging at me all day. I'm bumping HC.gov Week Five projection up further to 840,000 for 11/29 - 12/05 (2.88 million cumulatively), or around 3.77 million nationally.

I'm also tweaking The Graph a bit accordingly: