REMINDER: Today's Week 4 Snapshot should hit 2.02 Million as of 11/28

NOTE: The Weekly HealthCare.Gov Snapshot Reports are normally released at around 1:00pm on Wednesdays. I have a 1:00pm meeting today, so the odds are that I won't be able to write up a response/analysis of the weekly numbers until late this afternoon.

THEREFORE, the following assumes that my estimate of appx. 370,000 QHP selections via HealthCare.Gov from 11/22 - 11/28 turns out to be accurate. Obviously if the number is significantly higher or lower than that, I'll have to tweak some of this.

OK, assuming this is correct:

  • The 4-week total for HealthCare.Gov should be appx. 2.02 million.
  • There will likely be a bunch of headlines about how "Obamacare Enrollments Drop 30% in Fourth Week!!" which is technically true, but kind of stupid because last week included Thanksgiving. This has alrady been accounted for in my projections (see the flat line under the little turkey on The Graph?)
  • I'd expect the renewal portion (which has been around 65%) to start dropping a bit, to perhaps 60% of the weekly total. I wrote about the renewal-vs-new factor last week.
  • It will also be interesting to see how the English vs. Spanish website traffic develops week to week, although that's not necessarily as telling as it may look.

Again, assuming Week 4 was around 370K via, here's what that should also mean:

  • TOTAL QHP selections nationally (either re-enrollments or new) should have broken 2.6 million as of 11/28
  • CURRENT QHP selections nationally (as of today) should have broken the 3.0 million milestone.

And going forward, I expect the December Surge to be ramping up right about now, which means around 600,000 QHPs via during Week 5. That should bring us to...

  • QHP selections should break 2.60 million as of this Saturday (Week 5)
  • TOTAL QHP selections nationally should hit 3.40 million as of this Saturday (Week 5)

OK, gotta go; we'll see how I did for Thanksgiving week...