Back On Track: 6.593M QHPs via through January 2nd

The past couple of weeks I was a bit off my game; I underestimated Healthcare.Gov QHP selections by 6% through 12/12, and then underestimated by 9% the following week. The report through the 26th was kind of a mess because a) I was out of town on a mini-vacation and b) it was completely overshadowed by the HHS Dept's first monthly report, which was itself also kind of a mess.

Today, however, I'm happy to say that my projection from last Friday was dead on target through January 2nd:

I think it's safe to assume that the current week (12/27 - 01/02) should follow a similar path, given New Year's Eve and Day being included, so I'll assume roughly 100K more being added this week, for a total of 6.59 million via as of tonight.

HHS, today:

Since Open Enrollment began on November 15, nearly 6.6 million consumers selected a plan or were automatically re-enrolled in the Federally Facilitated Marketplace (FFM). The Week 7 snapshot includes the New Year’s holiday; consumers continued to shop and select the plan that best meets their financial or health needs.

...HHS produces more detailed reports that look at plan selection across the Federally Facilitated Marketplace and State-Based Marketplaces on a monthly basis. The first Open Enrollment monthly report was released on December 30. Weekly snapshots do not include the consumers who visited, called, shopped or selected a plan through a State-Based Marketplace.

OK, so I was off by 3,388 out of 6.59 million, or 0.05%.

More interesting to me, as I noted on Friday, is the remaining number of applications submitted. Those are people who set up an account, filled in all of their information but who just haven't actually selected a plan yet. 8.43 million minus 6.59 million = over 1.8 million people who have yet to finish the process.