New York: Hallelujah!! An update at last: 154K total (QHPs + Medicaid) UPDATED w/breakdown

This Just In...

154,000 have enrolled in QHP + Medicaid in NY #obamacare @charles_gaba @charlesornstein

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 12, 2014

Unfortunately no breakout between the two yet...hopefully soon...I also don't know what date that number runs through, nor do I know if the QHP tally includes new enrollments only (a la California & Connecticut) or if it also includes renewals as well.

Also, we now have our first official Deadline Extension due to the massive snowstorm in Buffalo/etc recently:

@charles_gaba State also says deadline to enroll for jan. extended to Dec. 20 b/c of "extreme weather"

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 12, 2014

While I'm waiting to find out the QHP-specific figure, here's what it's likely to be based on the other states so far (this assumes all enrollments, not just new ones):

  • Last year, NY averaged 1,852 per day over 200 days.
  • If it's in line with the 37 state aggregate on Healthcare.Gov, it could be up to 4,400/day, or 120K if the data runs all the way up through yesterday. However, that's unlikely: The reason looks so impressive this year compared to last is because the website was a disaster early on last year, whereas NY's was (relatively) trouble-free (I think).
  • If it's more in line with CO, DC, KY or MN (which is more likely), it should be running at around 2,800/day, or 75K through yesterday.
  • If it's in line with the aggregate of all other states so far, it should be roughly 3,800/day, or 105K.

My guess is it'll prove to be more like 60K or so since 75K would mean a 50/50 split with Medicaid, which is usually higher...but I don't know how they're reporting Medicaid either so...

UPDATE:  OK, it is indeed through yesterday:

@charles_gaba Thru thursday 12/11

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 12, 2014

So now I just need to know a) QHP/Medicaid breakout and b) if QHP includes new+renewals or just one or the other...

UPDATE: OK, here's the breakdown:

Medicaid, 102,164; QHP 52,398 Story with chart cc: @charles_gaba @charlesornstein @philgalewitz

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 12, 2014

OK, that's about the ratio I was expecting. QHPs are a bit lower than I would've figured (see above), but not suspiciously so.

UPDATE: Holy smokes:

@charles_gaba does NOT include renewals as per health department

— Dan Goldberg (@DanGoldbergCNY) December 12, 2014

Wow--that changes things considerably!

Assuming a 50/50 split as I've done for both California & Connecticut (which seems more than reasonable...every other state so far has been anywhere from 50% renewals to as high as 84% in the case of Vermont), that means NY should have at least another 52,000 renewed enrollees so far, or 104K+ total!