Drat. I was off by 1.9% this time: HHS announces 765K QHPs on HC.gov

Hmpf.

On Sunday night I Tweeted out the following:

Moments ago, the HHS Dept. released the following:

I called the 11/28 HC.gov total as 780K; the actual number was 765,135, so I overshot by 1.9%. I recently started separating HC.gov QHPs ("plans selected") from the total since some people forget that HC.gov only makes up around 75% of the total nationally.

OK, all joking aside, some patterns are starting to form here:

  • The New vs. Renewal ratio seems to be holding steady at roughly 50/50, which is really interesting.
  • Assuming that the 50/50 ratio holds true nationally as well, that suggests that roughly 670K people out of the 1.35 million who have selected a plan to date have already manually renewed/re-enrolled out of the 6.7 million eligible to do so...or around 10% of the total to date.
  • Another fascinating pattern: In Massachusetts, I've repeatedly noted that every day there seems to be a consistent pattern: About 50% of the total "determined eligible" for a QHP enrollment (the equivalent of "applications submitted" above) have already selected a plan as of that date. This seems to be the same ratio at HC.gov as well: 765,135 = 49.2% of the 1.552 million applications submitted.
  • The other specs listed don't mean a whole lot to me, but check out that call center wait time drop!