KFF posts awesome new enrollment tools by state, zip code & more...with a couple of major caveats.

Hat Tip To: 
Bob Doherty

Thanks to Bob Doherty for providing links to 2 extremely handy tools from the Kaiser Family Foundation, which break down 2014 QHP ACA exchange enrollments by various demographic criteria.

The state-level spreadsheet is no different from my own 2014 spreadsheet, except that it also includes an updated estimate of the potential pool of QHP enrollees within each state.

The zip code tool, however, is far more impressive, as it lets you search enrollment data by zip code and then provides all sorts of demographic info within that area (not zip code specifically, but County and "city area"). It tells you what percentage of the potential market has enrolled, and then breaks the numbers down by ethnicity, education level, gender and so on.

The work done on these tools is impressive. However, there are a couple of major problems with them which limit their usefulness:

  • For both the state-level table as well as the zip code/area-based tool, the enrollment numbers are based on last April's total number (paid or not) of 8.02 million. The problem with this, of course, is that only about 7.1 million of those people actually paid their first premium (ie, were actually enrolled), and the numbers have since dropped further to around 6.7 million nationally.
  • Complicating things further is that the drop from 8.02M to 6.7M has not happened evenly. Some states, like Oregon, actually have a much higher current enrollment tally than they did in April. Others have remained almost identical, such as Minnesota and Maryland. Still others, such as California and Florida, are below 80% of their official April tally.
  • Finally, in the case of the zip code tool only, it looks like it only applies to 36 states; the state-run exchange data for the other 14 (+DC) isn't included, although there's a separate version for New York specifically.

All that being said, these are both still quite handy.

For myself, the most useful info is the potential marketplace enrollee column specifically. I'm basically ignoring the "number selected" and "percent enrolled" columns, since those are no longer valid, but the potential enrollee column allows me to update my existing "potential pool" spreadsheet (which itself was based on KFF's old estimates).