Sticking my neck out: We may have crossed the 10M line on net Medicaid/CHIP

The most-recent CMS report, which only runs through June 30th, gave the net gain in Medicaid/CHIP enrollment as around 7.2 million, plus an additional 950,000 people who were added to Medicaid due to ACA provisions prior to October 2013. That's 8.15 million total over pre-ACA numbers.

There's two important points to keep in mind, however: First, again, that only ran through 6/30/14; there's been 3 solid months of additional Medicaid/CHIP enrollments since that time; and second, as of September there was a backlog of over a million people still waiting to be processed and added to the Medicaid/CHIP roles (1/3 of this in California alone).

I have no idea how much of this backlog has since been cleared up, but if CA's improvement rate is anything to go by, my guess is that most of it should be out of the way by the time the 2nd open enrollment period kicks in on November 15th.

If I'm correct about this (or even close to correct), by my count the current net increase in Medicaid/CHIP enrollments should be right around 10.0 million even at the moment, and should hit around 10.5 million just in time for Year Two: