BREAKING: 7.3 Million CURRENTLY Enrolled in ACA Exchange QHPs (UPDATED)

Apparently it took Congressional testimony to get it out of them, but here it is:

Another couple of key points...

7.3 million people were signed up for Obamacare as of Aug 15 and paid their premiums, HHS says

— igorvolsky (@igorvolsky) September 18, 2014

Now, before anyone claims that I'm "wrong" about the paid number being 7.3 million instead of 8.07 million, read the tweet carefully: I says that 7.3 million were enrolled as of August 15th. In other words, that's the net number after subtracting those who've dropped their coverage after 1, 2, 3 or more months.

This is FANTASTIC news.

It means that either...

  • a) the actual number who've been enrolling daily in the off-season is higher than my 9,000/day estimate, or
  • b) that the attrition rate after the first month is lower than my 3%/month estimate, or
  • c) more than 90% of enrollees eventually pay their first month's premium, or
  • c) some combination of all three.

If my 9K/day additions / 3% per month subtractions / 90% payment estimates were all accurate, the currently enrolled number would only be about 7 million, not 7.3 million.

Now, I think it's unlikely that the "first month paid" percent is any higher than 90%, which means that it's probably a combination of the daily additions being higher than 9K and/or the attrition rate being slightly lower than 3% per month.

If both the 90% paid & 3% attrition figures are accurate, that would mean the additions are much higher than I thought, more like 12,000 per day.

UPDATE: Assuming that my 90% paid / 9K/day addition estimates are correct, the attrition rate appears to only be around 2% instead of 3% per month:

UPDATE: Here's the official statement from CMS Administrator Marilyn Tavenner:

“As of August 15, this year, we have 7.3 million Americans enrolled in Health Insurance Marketplace coverage and these are individuals who paid their premiums. We are encouraged by the number of consumers who paid their premiums and continue to enroll in the Marketplace coverage everyday through special enrollment periods.

This is the most recent count of people who have coverage throughout the Marketplace. Each month, this number will change slightly as consumers transition in and out of coverage as their life circumstances change— everything from getting a new job, to moving to a new state, or becoming eligible for Medicaid or Medicare.”

Here's an official statement from an HHS Official (emphasis mine):

As of August 15, 2014, 7.3 million Americans were enrolled in Marketplace coverage and had paid their premiums. This number represents a snapshot of a point in time, not the cumulative enrollment data from October 2013 through August 2014. For example, it does not include individuals who:

  • Enrolled in Marketplace plans and paid their premiums but discontinued coverage before August 15, 2014.
  • Signed up for Marketplace coverage but did not pay their premiums by August 2014.
  • Have signed up for Marketplace coverage and paid their premiums after August 15, 2014.
  • The Marketplace is a dynamic place – people come in and out – even during the course of a year.
  • Marketplace coverage is there for Americans when they need it, at a price they can afford.
  • As of September 15, there were about 115,000 consumers with an immigration or citizenship data matching issue that haven’t submitted documentation. In addition to the normal churn of people coming into and out of the Marketplace, this could cause the number of consumers who have coverage to change after September. We continue to encourage these consumers to submit information that confirms their eligibility after the deadline because they may be eligible for a special enrollment period to enroll in coverage.

In other words, the 7.3 million number has already subtracted both non-payers and drop-outs from the total, meaning that 7.3 million people are currently enrolled and paying.