Oregon: Net enrollments UP 15% since April 19; net attrition rate 2.5% per month

I'm about to show you a chart which demonstrates several noteworthy things about QHP enrollment in Oregon (which, in spite of the terrible technical problems their site has had, has managed to enroll a similar ratio of their uninsured residents in private policies (around 34%) via their exchange to Kentucky, which is considered one of the most successful exchanges).

First, here's the latest numbers, as of 4 days ago:

September 10, 2014
Update: Private coverage and Oregon Health Plan enrollment through Cover Oregon

Medical enrollments through Cover Oregon: 353,454
Total private medical insurance enrollments through Cover Oregon: 101,092

Oregon Health Plan enrollments through Cover Oregon: 252,362*

*OHP enrollment data is current as of August 13, 2014. An updated number will be posted soon.

Dental enrollments 
Total private dental insurance enrollments through CoverOregon 1: 20,686

Net enrollments 
Net private medical: 78,616
Net private dental: 14,603

1 Total numbers are the number of enrollments that have occurred through Cover Oregon.

2 Net numbers are enrollments remaining in the system on this date after cancellations and terminations.

So, the net exchange QHP number (78,616) is only around 78% of the total number enrolled (101,092). On the surface, this doesn't sound very good.

However, it's important to remember that this is relative to the last official enrollment number released by the HHS Dept. back in May, which only ran through April 19th. The number on that report? 68,308.

If you use that as your benchmark, then Cover Oregon's current paid enrollment is actually 15% higher than the official number.

The reason for this, of course, is that the total enrollee number has kept moving upwards since 4/19 (though obviously at a slower pace during the off-season than during the open enrollment period). 

On the other hand, as with just about every other state, not all of those who "enroll" actually pay their first month's premium, and there will be some attrition after the 1st, 2nd, 3rd month and so on as people drop their coverage to move on to other forms of coverage (Medicare, Medicaid, ESI) or move out of state (or die, for that matter...hey, it happens to everyone sooner or later...)

The tricky part is that so far only one state--Washington--has issued a report which separates out all 3 of these number (total, paid and dropped). For other states such as Oregon, the additions and subtractions are sort of mushed together, making it difficult to tell what the hard numbers are for each. Fortunately, Oregon has reported their net enrollment with every update since March 19th, allowing me to chart the net number relative to the high point, like so:

As you can see, Oregon reached their high paid QHP point on July 14th, with 82,637 people. Since then the currently-enrolled number has drifted downwards to 78,616...a loss of just 4.9% over nearly 2 months, or around 2.5% per month.