Minnesota breaks 300K Total Enrollment Milestone; Uninsured rate down as much as 55%???

When I updated the Minnesota exchange numbers just a few days ago, they stood at 53,647 QHPs & 240,654 Medicaid/CHIP enrollees...or 294,301 total.

Just 3 days later, the MNsure exchange has tacked on almost 5,800 more people, breaking through the 300,000 mark:

More Than 300,000 Minnesotans Enroll in Quality Health Coverage Through MNsure

ST. PAUL, Minn.—MNsure today announced that 300,085 Minnesotans have enrolled in comprehensive, affordable health insurance coverage through the state health insurance marketplace.

“I’m proud to announce today that more than 300,000 Minnesotans have enrolled in health insurance through MNsure,” said MNsure CEO Scott Leitz. “During the State Fair, we hope to help even more Minnesotans find comprehensive, affordable coverage that meets the needs of their families or small businesses. Be sure to visit us in the Health Fair 11 building and bring your questions about MNsure.”

To date, 180,566 are enrolled in Medical Assistance, 65,749 in MinnesotaCare and 53,770 in a Qualified Health Plan. Between September 30, 2013, and May 1, 2014, the number of uninsured Minnesotans fell by 40.6% to a record low. Open enrollment for 2015 coverage begins November 15, 2014.

It's worth noting that the combined QHP/Medicaid total as of the end of April was 206,157...or 94,000 less than it is today. The QHP additions and cancellations have probably cancelled each other out, but new Medicaid enrollees are more likely to have stayed on the list since then. Now, of those 94K, only about 3,200 of the additions are QHPs, leaving over 90,000 added to the Medicaid tally.

Assuming that at least 80% of these additional Medicaid enrollees were also newly insured, it's very likely that MN's uninsured rate has dropped by another 70,000 or so since then.

Minnesota started out with around 462,000 uninsured last fall, and the press release states that this rate had dropped by 40.6% as of May 1st...a drop of around 187,000 people. If you add 70K to this and all of the other numbers (ESI, off-exchange QHPs, Medicare, non-expansion Medicaid, etc) have all remained fairly consistent since May, this suggests that it may have dropped by as much as an additional 15%, for a total drop of up to 55% since last September...but there are several big assumptions at play here.

In any event, Minnesota deserves some major kudos for reaching this milestone.