Maine: Estimating 90% QHPs paid based on Wellpoint testimony (UPDATE)

As with my recent Alabama post, in which BCBS of Alabama stated that they're seeing an 82% payment rate out of an 87% market share, this is not proof absolute for Maine, but it's the best guideline we have for the state at the moment: In yesterday's Congressional testimony, executives for Wellpoint, the 2nd largest insurer in the country, stated that 90% of their exchange QHP enrollments have been paid so far. I took a look at the states Wellpoint operates in; there's a good dozen or so, and their market share varies in each one, but there's one, Maine, where they had a whopping 74% market share last year.

Now, the same caveats apply to Maine that did for Alabama: That 74% may not match their market share on the exchange (it could be higher or lower), and even if it does, that still leave 26% of the QHPs to the other companies operating in the state. However, if the payment ratios are similar across the other players (and I can't think of why it wouldn't be), that strongly supports a 90% payment rate for Maine as of last week.

Since I'm already using a "90%" rule of thumb for states which haven't given explicit payment data recently, this doesn't really change anything on the spreadsheet, but it does help fill in a few pieces of the puzzle.

UPDATE: bad. Apparently Wellpoint only managed to score a 20% share of the Maine exchange QHP market after all, with their sole competitor, a Co-Op called Maine Community Health Options managed to nab a whopping 80% of the total!

On the one hand, this is quite impressive. On the other, it also completely cannonballs my "90% 'cus Wellpoint sez so" theory. Ah, well...