Exchange QHPs Est. 4.89M Today; Should Hit 5 Million Tuesday

Just as a reminder: Based on my projection model and a little big of educated guesswork on my part, I've estimated that Private Exchange QHPs should be around 4.89 Million as of today, setting things up to cross the 5 Million mark sometime on Tuesday, March 18.

If I'm correct about this, then it means:

  • The rate averaged around 44,000/day for the first half of the month
  • The rate for the second half of March will have to average at least 74,000/day in order to hit 6 Million
  • The rate for the second half of March will have to average at least 141,000/day in order to hit 7 million

Obviously, the 7M target is going to be extremely difficult to reach at this point.

However, 6 million, or even 6.5 million is doable if the final surge really does kick in solidly. During the big late-December surge, California hit 30,000 enrollments in one day on Dec. 23rd (can't find the source link) and hit 20,000/day for several other days in December, entirely by itself. if that were to happen again for a few days, and if CA represented about 1/5 of the national rate during that period (as it currently does for the existing total), 100K - 150K/day is definitely conceivable for the final week.