Introducing a New Feature on The Graph

Sat, 03/15/2014 - 8:57pm

Between the success of my new QHP enrollment projection model and today's confirmation that at least some sort of "March Surge" has indeed started, I'm confident enough to add a new feature to The Graph: Estimate of Unsorted Exhange QHPs.

This new addition represents my personal estimate of the number of exchange QHP enrollments which have already been completed as of today, in addition to the ones which I've actually documented and sourced. Due to this addition, I'll be updating the chart daily going forward.

For instance, as of today, March 15, I've actually documented 4.47 million QHP enrollments. However, that only includes data through 3/01 for most states plus data since 3/01 for a dozen or so state-run exhanges. Obviously there have been additional enrollments in the other 35+ states that I just haven't documented/broken out by state yet.

Until now, I've never included those on the graph unless the HHS Dept. issued a general milestone number (3 million, 4 million, etc). Going into the final 2 weeks of the enrollment period, I've decided to go ahead and enter my own estimate of how many undocumented enrollments have already been booked.

In order to keep things clear, however, they're entered as a separate field on The Graph (right in between "Off-Exchange" and "Enrolled but Unpaid")

As of today, that number stands at around 420,000 QHPs, but this will change daily as time passes and new data comes in from various states.

As a result, the "QuickView" numbers at the top of the home page have also been altered and expanded.

To Review: As of today (3/15), I have things as:

  • Private QHPs: (4.02M - 5.46M)
  • Medicaid/CHIP: (4.40M - 6.12M)
  • Sub26ers: 3.10M
  • Total as of March 15, 2014: (11.5 M - 14.7 M)
  • Enrollment Period Elapsed: 90.6%
  • CBO QHP Projection Attained: 69.9% of 7M (or 81.5% of 6M)
  • 3/31 QHP Projection as of 3/15: March: 1.55M / Total: 5.79M
  • Estimated Exch. QHPs as of 3/15: March: 645K / Total: 4.89M
  • Estimated Date to hit 5 Million Exch. QHPs: Tuesday, March 18

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