OE4

Huh. Rhode Island didn't post any updates at all for the first 5 weeks of OE4, but has now posted weekly updates back to back:

INDIVIDUAL AND FAMILY ENROLLMENT As of December 10, 2016

Access Health CT gave a quasi-update today as part of a "Deadline Coming Up!" press release:

“The deadline to have coverage starting the first of the year is this week,” said CEO Wadleigh. “We’re seeing huge numbers of people enrolling – which is amazing. We want people to have coverage, that’s for sure. But what we want most of all is for Connecticut to be healthy. We’re on the right track – we’ve seen over 16,000 people sign up for 2017 coverage since November 1st.”

Covered California, the largest state-based ACA exchange (making up over 12% of national exchange QHP enrollments) has only posted one enrollment report so far this period. At the time, they reported 308,000 QHP selections, of which 263,462 were active renewals by existing enrollees and 44,885 were new enrollees signing up. This was as of November 15th...15 days into the enrollment period.

On the one hand, only 14.5% of these are new, which is disturbingly low. On the other hand, part of the reason for this is because so many current enrollees actively renewed...helped, no doubt, by CoveredCA's new policy which allowed them to do so an entire month early (starting on October 1st).

Just moments ago, CoveredCA issued new enrollment data:

Covered California Enrollment Surging as Critical Deadline for Coverage Approaches

Careful readers might notice a subtle but important change in The Graph today. Most of the key numbers (including both my 12/15 and 1/31 projections) remain the same (7.7 million and 13.8 million respectively), and the overall flow of the projection curve hasn't changed. However, there's a pretty obvious difference right in the middle of the graph...namely the current week (Week 7).

The previous version had my projections as follows:

  • 12/10: 5.38M national / 4.14M HC.gov
  • 12/11: 5.62M national / 4.33M HC.gov
  • 12/12: 6.00M national / 4.62M HC.gov
  • 12/13: 6.17M national / 4.75M HC.gov
  • 12/14: 7.00M national / 5.39M HC.gov
  • 12/15: 7.70M national / 5.93M HC.gov
  • 12/16: 8.15M national / 6.28M HC.gov
  • 12/17: 8.56M national / 6.59M HC.gov

The revised estimate/projection is:

Maryland still hasn't posted an official enrollment data report for the 2017 Open Enrollment Period, but they did reveal a pretty impressive rough enrollment number yesterday:

About 130,0000 Marylanders have signed up so far for insurance plans for 2017 through marylandhealthconnection.gov. Open enrollment began Nov. 1 and lasts through January, though people who want insurance starting Jan. 1 must be signed up by Thursday. About 163,000 people were enrolled in private plans this year, an increase of 33 percent from 2015.

The article was posted yesterday (12/12), so I assume the 130K figure is as of 12/11. I'm fairly certain that this includes auto-renewals, seeing how last year their 12/15 tally stood at 150K including all renewals (both passive and automatic).

It's difficult to do an exact apples to apples comparison, however, since enrollments should be ramping up dramatically during these final few days before the 12/15 deadline, so I'm not gonna try.

Hmmm...MNsure has issued a press release containing their latest enrollment numbers...but I'm a little confused about the "thru date", which is pretty important as we're ramping up for the final days before the 12/15 deadline for January coverage:

Since the start of open enrollment, there have been:

I haven't written a single word about Maryland since early October. Last year their ACA exchange was very good about posting fairly regular enrollment updates; this year they've been dead silent about it so far, which is rather surprising (and no, I don't think it's because their numbers are bad...every other state I have data for seems to be doing pretty well or even better than last year so far).

Anyway, there's one bit of news out of the Old Line State (yes, I had to look it up to find out what their nickname is) today which is disappointing but not surprising when you understand the circumstances:

The Maryland Insurance Administration barred Evergreen Health from selling health insurance policies for individuals until federal and state regulators decide whether to allow the cooperative to convert to a for-profit insurer and receive a much-needed cash infusion.

A couple of weeks ago, I noted that Massachusetts had confirmed just over 23,000 QHP selections for 2017 as of 11/17, consisting of around 15,800 renewing enrollees and 7,200 new people signing up.

Today I've received the latest enrollment data out of the Bay State:

As of Dec. 6, we have 10,210 new plans selected, plus an additional 13,251 new enrollments. That’s a total of 23,461 new plans selected so far in Open Enrollment.

That doesn’t include an additional 3,291 plans selected or enrollments by “returning” members. These would be people who had Health Connector coverage at some point, but for whatever reason do not right now and are coming back for 2017.

OK, that's 26,752 new enrollees (I define "new" as anyone signing up who isn't already currently enrolled in an effectuated exchange policy, even if they used to be and dropped it a few months earlier). That's more than 3.5x as many as 3 weeks earlier; impressive.

There's exactly 7 days just 3 days to go before the first major 2017 Open Enrollment Period deadline (the 12/15 deadline in most states for coverage starting January 1st), so let's see where things stand.

  • I've confirmed 2,903,199 QHP selections nationally, of which 2,137,717 are via the federal exchange and 765,482 are via the dozen state exchanges.
  • However, most of this only runs through November 26, and I still have no enrollment data at all for DC, Idaho, Maryland, New York, Vermont or Washington State.
  • estimate that the actual national total broke through 4.5 million last night, and should break 5.0 million by tomorrow (Friday) night.
  • Enrollments should have started ramping up dramatically as we go into the final few days before the big 12/15 deadline, culminating in around 7.7 million by the 15th.
  • After that, the HC.gov auto-renewals should be tacked on somewhere around 12/17 - 12/18.

As recently as 11/26/16, enrollments on both the federal and most state exchanges was either pacing or somewhat ahead of my projections, with no "Trump Factor" to speak of. I won't know for sure whether this is still the case until the HC.gov Week 5-6 Snapshot report is released, which likely won't be until next Wednesday.

I've been posting so many stories about the ugly implications of the ACA being repealed that it's kind of nice to get back to actually reporting on the number of people enrolling for ACA coverage again (hey, it's right there in the title of this site and everything...)

Rhode Island, which issued regular weekly enrollment reports last year, has been unusually silent so far this year...until today:

HealthSource RI (HSRI) has released certain enrollment, demographic and volume data through Saturday, December 3, 2016 for Open Enrollment.

INDIVIDUAL/FAMILY ENROLLMENT
As of December 3, 2016

Now that we're past Thanksgiving weekend and the big December 15th deadline (for January coverage) is coming up fast, OE4 enrollments should have started ramping up significantly, on the order of 250,000 per day or more nationally (around 190K via HC.gov).

As noted last week, so far, total enrollments have been pacing my overall projections almost perfectly...slightly ahead of my estimates for the first month, in fact. Assuming this continues, national QHP selections should have broken 4.1 million nationally sometime Monday night (12/05), with around 3.1 million of those coming via the federal exchange.

The Connecticut ACA exchange, AccessHealthCT, issued a press release today reminding Connecticut residents in general of the December 15th deadline for January 1st coverage. They also stressed, however, that while most current enrollees will be automatically renewed into either their existing policy, there are about 26,000 current enrollees who can't be auto-renewed because their carrier is leaving the exchange in 2017:

On December 1st, AHCT’s automatic renewal process began. The AHCT eligibility system will automatically enroll into 2017 coverage customers who have selected auto-renew and whose plans are still available. “But, there are 26,000 people who currently have coverage through AHCT who cannot auto-renew and must take action to renew their 2017 plans,” Wadleigh noted. Wadleigh reminds all customers “they should shop around and compare your options for 2017– that’s the purpose of the marketplace.”

Connect for Health Colorado just posted an official enrollment update:

DENVER — More than 37,000 Coloradans selected healthcare coverage for 2017 through the state health insurance Marketplace in November, a rate 23 percent ahead of signups one year ago, according to new data released today by Connect for Health Colorado®.

“The pace of sign-ups during the first month of this Open Enrollment has been very heartening,” said Connect for Health Colorado CEO Kevin Patterson. “We know that there is a lot of discussion now about the future direction of healthcare, but what remains constant and true is the importance of protecting the health and financial future of all Coloradans. I encourage everyone who needs health insurance to check to see if they qualify for financial assistance, review the available plans, and complete an enrollment before the last-minute rush.”

In the first month of the annual Open Enrollment period, Coloradans selected 37,948 medical and dental insurance plans. That compares to 30,777 such plan selections in November 2015.

Last week I decided to once again take a crack at projecting not only the final number of 2017 Open Enrollment Period QHP enrollments nationally, but on a state-by-state basis. I started with a simple assumption of "2016 + 8.7%" (to match the national 13.8 milliion vs. 12.7 million projection made by both myself and the HHS Dept.), and then adjusted each state higher or lower based on various factors.

Now that CMS has broken out the first 4 weeks' worth of QHP selections via the federal exchange, in addition to the partial data I have on hand for some of the state-based exchanges, it's time to see where things stand compared to my personal projections. The only states where I know of an official projection are California and Connecticut, and even these have some wiggle room as they're more ranges than exact numbers.

With that in mind, here's what it looks like at the moment. Click the graph below for a high-resolution version. Things to note:

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