As has been obvious for some time now, the early projections by the Congressional Budget Office back in the pre-exchange days of 2010 - 2013, which foresaw ACA exchange enrollment heading into the 20-million-plus range by this point, obviously not only never came to pass, but are unlikely to do so anytime in the near future under the current legal/healthcare policy structure. There are several reasons for this ranging from legitimate problems with the structure of the ACA itself to Republican obstruction, but the two most obvious errors the CBO made in their projections were:

Presented without comment. (thanks to Sahil Kapur for the link):

Keith Hall, Director
U.S. Congress
Washington, DC 20515

August 3, 2015

Honorable Mike Enzi
Committee on the Budget
United States Senate
Washington, DC 20510

Re: Budgetary Effects of S. 1881

Dear Mr. Chairman:

Last week, CBO provided the following information in response to a request for an estimate of the budgetary effects of S. 1881:

S. 1881, which would prohibit federal funds from being made available to Planned Parenthood Federation of America or any of its affiliates, could affect direct spending for the Medicaid program; however, CBO has not determined whether the legislation would increase or decrease the program’s spending. Completing an estimate of such effects would take some time.