Medicaid Expansion

Back in March, after years of failed and stalled attempts to get it passed, the North Carolina legislature finally pushed ACA Medicaid expansion over the line to be signed into law by Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

As for when the program would actually go into effect, however...that's been something of a mystery for awhile now. Apparently the wording of the legislation ties it in with it being included in the general state budget, which hasn't happened yet. As a result, no one seems to be sure when the healthcare expansion program for up to ~600,000 North Carolina residents will actually launch.

Back in July, the Health & Human Services Dept. took an optimistic stance, preparing for the possibility of the program kicking off starting on October 1st of this year. Unfortunately, that was based on the assumption that the GOP-controlled state legislature would actually pass the general budget required for it to happen by September 1st.

It's now September 18th. Where do things stand?

Over at Inside Health Policy, Dorothy Mills-Gregg has decided to check in on "Georgia Pathways," the Peach State's new program which partially expands Medicaid to residents earning up to 100% of the Federal Poverty Level (FPL), but with a rather significant string attached: Work reporting requirements:

As noted by Madeline Guth of the Kaiser Family Foundation last year:

...in spite of nearly every state which tried to (or succeeded in) implement Medicaid work requirements having their programs shut down by the courts, one state's work/reporting managed to survive: Georgia. As explained in the Kaiser article:

Back in March, after years of failed and stalled attempts to get it passed, the North Carolina legislature finally pushed ACA Medicaid expansion over the line to be signed into law by Democratic Governor Roy Cooper.

As for when the program would actually go into effect, however...that's been something of a mystery for awhile now. Apparently the wording of the legislation ties it in with it being included in the general state budget, which hasn't happened yet. As a result, no one seems to be sure whether NC Medicaid expansion will kick off in October, November, December or January of next year.

However, the state's Health & Human Services Dept. has decided to take a proactive, optimistic stance:

State Takes Action To Start Medicaid Expansion Oct. 1; Launch depends on General Assembly acting by Sept. 1

During this springs Congressional kabuki theater regarding raising the federal debt ceiling, one of the biggest points of contention was House Republicans insistence on tying work requirements (w/stringent reporting) to Medicaid eligibility.

"Work requirements" is as old a saw for Republican politicians as "selling insurance across state lines," and it's just as ineffective and counterproductive (as well as simply being cruel). This debate has been held numerous times before, and the upside of such requirements has been debunked repeatedly, but here he go again:

As Joan McCarter of Daily Kos put it way back in 2015:

A reminder via Dakota News Now:

SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (Dakota News Now) - Although Medicaid expansion in the state of South Dakota doesn’t take effect for another month, the window to apply opened on Thursday. A kickoff event was held for advocates and patients to review the benefits for those who qualify.

“Today has been long overdue. No one should have to choose between bankrupting their family and getting the health coverage they need,” said Dr. Dan Johnson from the American Cancer Society.

After the hard work of gathering petition signatures and talking to voters, Medicaid expansion advocates are celebrating enrollment opening for South Dakota residents.

...Over 50,000 people will be eligible for Medicaid, as voters approved Constitutional Amendment D last November. Erik Nelson, an advocate with AARP, has had positive conversations with the state handling the logistics of enrollment.

...Even if applicants don’t have their application completed by the July 1 effective date, a plan is in place.

Medicaid Expansion by State & Month, 2014 - 2022

Back in January, as the 2023 Open Enrollment Period wound down, I posted a colorful graph which tracked ACA Qualified Health Plan (QHP) enrollment over ten years of Open Enrollment Periods.

Today I'm doing the same thing for ACA Medicaid Expansion. The data comes from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services monthly Medicaid Budget & Expenditure System reports.

Unfortunately the MBES reports only run through September 2022; my best guess is that the national total as of March 2023 was up to around 24.4 million or so, roughly 900K higher than what's shown below.

Also keep in mind that if the remaining 10 states had expanded Medicaid under the ACA by now, the grand total would have been up to 3.5 million higher (around 27.9 million nationally).

Aside from various holdout states jumping in as the years have passed, the most notable milestone was the month that the COVID pandemic hit the U.S. in full force, shutting businesses down across the country in March 2020.

No further analysis or comment here; I just think this is a pretty cool graphic...and keep in mind that most of the ~23.5 million people represented here (again, likely over 24M today) would have been utterly screwed without the Affordable Care Act being in place when the pandemic hit. Click the image for a higher-resolution version; the states are listed on the right-hand side, though they might be difficult to make out:

Back in January, I noted that total enrollment in healthcare policies either specifically created by or expanded to more people by the Affordable Care Act had broken 40 million Americans:

With last week's report from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) touting the record-breaking 16.3 million Qualified Health Plan (QHP) selections during the 2023 Open Enrollment Period (OEP), it's time to take another look at the grand total.

For this, I'm assuming a similar 94% average effectuation rate as of February 1st (2 days from now) to the ASPE report from last year for QHP enrollees. Taken literally, that would mean 15,328,061 effectuated on-exchange ACA enrollees.

ASPE

Back in late January, I crunched the numbers on the total number of Americans who currently have healthcare coverage directly via the Affordable Care Act. This includes three categories: Exchange-based Qualified Health Plans (QHPs); the Basic Health Plan (BHP) progams in Minnesota and New York; and Medicaid Expansion in the 38 states (+DC) which had implemented it as of that point.

I concluded that the total numbers for each were roughly 15.4 million QHPs, 1.2 million BHPs and 23.5 million Medicaid expansion enrollees, or around 40.1 million people total.

Earlier this week, the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) confirmed my estimates and even came in slightly higher, at around 40.2 million. They put effectuated QHPs at 15.6 million and Medicaid expansion enrollment at around 23.4 million.

A few weeks ago I raised an alarm about the federal budget introduced by former Trump Administration OMB Director Russell Vought's think tank, which is being embraced by many House Republicans as their blueprint for a formal budget proposal.

As I noted at the time, Vought's proposed budget would include, among many other horrific things, completely eliminating funding for the ACA's Medicaid expansion program as well as complete elimination of all Advance Premium Tax Credit (APTC) funding for ACA exchange-based individual market enrollees.

I went on to note that if this proposal were to somehow pass the Senate and be signed into law by President Biden (neither of which is likely to happen, to put it mildly), nearly 40 million Americans would lose healthcare coverage as a result nationally.

Below, I've broken that number out by state to give better context about just how draconian such an eventuality would be.

UPDATE 3/15/23: The agreed-to Medicaid expansion deal has passed the NC State Senate! It now just needs to pass the state House one final time and then it's on to Gov. Cooper's desk to be signed into law!

UPDATE 3/22/23: The bill has now passed the state House by a stunning 94-22 margin as well! It still has to pass one more time tomorrow (a "concurrence" vote) and then it's on to Gov. Cooper's desk!

UPDATE 3/23/23: On the 13th Anniversary of the Affordable Care Act, the North Carolina House has officially taken the final vote needed for passage, with the bill easily passing 87 - 24. It's now onto Gov. Cooper, who has vowed to sign it into law ASAP.

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