This is the best OEP ever for the ACA for several reasons:
The expanded/enhanced premium subsidies first introduced in 2021 via the American Rescue Plan, which make premiums more affordable for those who already qualified while expanding eligibility to millions who weren't previously eligible, are continuing through the end of 2025 via the Inflation Reduction Act;
A dozen states are either launching, continuing or expanding their own state-based subsidy programs to make ACA plans even more affordable for their enrollees;
100,000 or more DACA recipients are finally eligible to enroll in ACA exchange plans & receive financial assistance!
Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing (nearly 400 for 2025!) for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.
Carriers tendency to jump in and out of the market, repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need.
I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:
9/29/25: Welcome Paul Krugman subscribers! I greatly appreciate the shoutout by him but should add the following clarification:
Regarding the chart below which he reposted comparing the original ACA subsidy scale to the current version: You probably think that if the enhanced subsidies expire it will revert back to the original version, which would be bad enough. In fact, however, the Trump Regime has also made THAT version even worse, like so:
Whether the data posted since January 20, 2025 is accurate or not, I can't say for certain, but at least they're updating it...and so far, at least, I don't see anything in their monthly reports which is setting off any obvious red flags.
In any event, according to the latest report, as of August 2025:
Total Medicare beneficiaries are up to 69.3 million (up ~86K month over month)
Traditional/FFM Medicare beneficiaries are at 33.79 million (down ~31K m/m)
Medicare Advantage beneficiaries reached 35.49 million (up ~55K m/m)
11.73 million Medicare enrollees (around 16.9% of the total) were "Dual Eligibles"...that is, enrolled in both Medicare and Medicaid.
The only number which seems odd is the 375K drop in Dual Eligibles...I'm not sure what to make of that.
I recently joined Ana Marie Cox & Open Mike Eagle on the Past Due Podcast to discuss the how to deal with this year's crazy ACA Open Enrollment Period. Tune in!
Yesterday, Politico reported that the Trump 2/3 White House was planning on rolling out his own counterproposal to Democrats demand that the enhanced ACA tax credits (which are still scheduled to expire just 36 days from now) be extended (preferably permanently, but at the bare minimum by at least a few years).
According to the Politico story, the Trump proposal supposedly included the following provisions:
Via Politico this morning, a mixed bag of good & bad news on the enhanced ACA tax credit saga today:
The White House expects to soon unveil a health policy framework that includes a two-year extension of Obamacare subsidies due to expire at the end of next month and new limits on eligibility, according to three people granted anonymity to discuss the unannounced plans.
...The White House plan is expected to include new income caps for enrollees to qualify for the ACA tax credits as well as minimum premium payments, according to the two people with direct knowledge of the proposal.
The planned eligibility cap would limit the subsidies to individuals with income up to 700 percent of the federal poverty line — aligning with what a bipartisan group of senators have been discussing separately, according to a fourth person granted anonymity to share knowledge of the negotiations.
At a bare, bare minimum, do not settle for a one- or two-year extension of the eAPTCs.
Kicking this particular can down the road for only one or two years would not only be an absolute gift to Republicans politically (since it would push the pain out until just past the midterms, which is of course the only reason why any Republicans are willing to discuss doing so at all), but it would also mean we'd be right back here with the exact same scary headlines a year or two from now, with 24 million people never knowing whether their health insurance premiums are going to skyrocket from year to year.
Nothing is worse for the insurance industry than uncertainty, and anytime they're uncertain about anything you can be sure they'll jack up rates as a "just in case" cushion.
The Maine Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) Office of the Health Insurance Marketplace (OHIM) will release biweekly updates on plan selections through CoverME.gov, Maine’s Health Insurance Marketplace.
Plan selections provide a snapshot of activity by new and returning consumers who have selected a plan for 2026. “Plan selections” become “enrollments” once consumers have paid their first monthly premium to begin coverage. These numbers are subject to change as consumers may modify or cancel plans after their initial selection.
The deadline to select a plan for coverage beginning January 1, 2026 is December 15, 2025. Consumers who select a plan between December 16, 2025 and January 15, 2026 will have coverage beginning February 1, 2026.
In my post about the U.S. Senate vote to end the federal government shutdown last week, I concluded that:
I'll have a lot more to say about this "HSAs for All" silliness which Trump & Sen. Cassidy are suddenly pitching, but in the meantime, whether you think 8 of them voting for the CR Sunday night was the right thing to do or not, once they did so, shifting the national dialogue back to healthcare policy (where Dems are strongest and Republicans are weakest) and the Epstein Files is probably the best outcome Democrats could've realistically hoped for from that point forward.
Almost every day since the, various Republican House & Senate members have underscored my point:
