Charles Gaba's blog

COVID-19

The data below comes from the GitHub data repositories of Johns Hopkins University, except for Utah, which comes from the GitHub data of the New York Times due to JHU not breaking the state out by county but by "region" for some reason.

Important:

  • Every county except those in Alaska lists the 2020 Biden/Trump partisan lean; Alaska still uses the 2016 Clinton/Trump results (the 2020 Alaska results are only available by state legislative district, not by county/borough for some reason...if anyone has that info let me know.)
  • I define a "Swing District" as one where the difference between Biden & Trump was less than 6.0%. FWIW, there's just 188 swing districts (out of over 3,100 total), with around 33.8 million Americans out of 328 million total (50 states + DC), or roughly 10.2% of the U.S. population.

With those caveats in mind, here's the top 100 counties ranked by per capita COVID-19 cases as of Tuesday, May 25th, 2021 (click image for high-res version).

  • Blue = Joe Biden won by more than 6 points
  • Orange = Donald Trump won by more than 6 points
  • Yellow = Swing District (Biden or Trump won by less than 6 points)
COVID-19 Icon

As of today, more than 50% of all U.S. adults are fully vaccinated against COVID-19, which is a fantastic milestone to have reached this quickly.

HOWEVER...over 23,000 Americans are still testing positive for COVID-19 every day, and over 450 are dying of it every day.

If you're not vaccinated, GET VACCINATED AND KEEP WEARING A MASK UNTIL 2 WEEKS AFTER YOUR SECOND SHOT.

I've done my best to label every state/territory, which obviously isn't easy to do for most of them given how tangled it gets in the middle.

NOTE: I've recently updated the spreadsheet to account for the official 2020 Census Bureau populations of every state. In most cases this has nudged their case & mortality rates down slightly.

Nearly 1 out of every 7 residents of North Dakota, South Dakota and Rhode Island have tested positive for COVID-19 to date.

More than 1 out of every 8 residents of Iowa.

More than 1 out of every 9 residents of Tennessee, Utah, Arizona, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Arkansas.

More than 1 out of 10 in New Jersey, Indiana, Delaware, Alabama, Illinois, Florida, Mississippi, Kansas, New York, Minnesota, Georgia, Idaho, Nevada, Wisconsin, Wyoming, Montana, Texas, Kentucky, Louisiana and Massachusetts.

More than 1 out of 20 in every state & territory EXCEPT Guam, Maine, Oregon, Vermont, U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii, N. Mariana Islands & American Samoa.

Michigan

A few weeks ago I noted that my year-long tracking of COVID-19 cases and deaths along partisan lines has proven to be very much justified, as recent headlines in major news outs have proven:

Nearly half of Republicans say they don’t want a Covid vaccine, a big public health challenge.

But more than two in five Republicans said they would avoid getting vaccinated if possible, suggesting that President Biden has not succeeded in his effort to depoliticize the vaccines — and leaving open the question of whether the country will be able to achieve herd immunity without a stronger push from Republican leaders to bring their voters on board.

‘I’m still a zero’: Vaccine-resistant Republicans warn that their skepticism is worsening

MNsure Logo

via MNsure:

New benefits make health insurance more affordable for more Minnesotans

  • MNsure enrollees are saving almost 20% each month on health insurance plans

ST. PAUL, Minn.—Minnesotans purchasing health insurance through MNsure are seeing increased savings thanks to recent changes to the Affordable Care Act made through the American Rescue Plan. MNsure is reminding Minnesotans in need of health insurance that they can sign up for coverage today through July 16 through the marketplace’s special enrollment period.

“The new and expanded financial help available only through MNsure can help lower the cost of health insurance by hundreds or even thousands of dollars a year for Minnesota families,” said MNsure CEO Nate Clark. “On average, Minnesotans who already have a plan through MNsure are seeing their monthly premiums reduced by almost 20%, which means you can have the peace of mind that comes with having health insurance, while keeping more money in your pocket.”

Access Health CT Logo

Unlike most states which kept their 2021 COVID Special Enrollment Period running continuously while they transitioned to the newly-expanded ACA subsidies, Access Health CT took a 2-week break in order to retool their website for the enhanced financial assistance.

During that break, I reported that the Connecticut ACA exchange enrolled 5,890 people via the SEP from 2/15 - 4/15, or roughly 98 per day, and that this was a rate 3.3x higher than the same time period during the typical pre-COVID era.

Access Health CT shut down their COVID SEP on 4/15, but then re-launched it with the new subsidy formula via the American Rescue Plan on May 1st. Since then, I've been informed, they've enrolled an additional 2,780 people through the exchange, or around 121 per day. That's 4x higher than the ~30/day they averaged in 2019.

COVID-19 Vaccine

The vaccination levels for each state below are based on taking the total number of COVID-19 doses administered to date according to the Centers for Disease Control), then and dividing that into double the state population (since each person needs two doses to be fully vaccinated) as of April 2020 according to the U.S. Census Bureau.

I then adjust each state by counting the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine twice (since it's effectively similar to getting 2 Pfizer or Moderna doses).

The percent of 2020 Presidential election vote won by Donald Trump comes from Wikipedia, which in turn gets their data from the Federal Election Commission.

Connecticut

Now that I've developed a standardized format/layout & methodology for tracking both state- and county-level COVID vaccination levels by partisan lean (which can also be easily applied to other variables like education level, median income, population density, ethnicity, etc), I've started moving beyond my home state of Michigan.

Here's Connecticut:

Colorado

Now that I've developed a standardized format/layout & methodology for tracking both state- and county-level COVID vaccination levels by partisan lean (which can also be easily applied to other variables like education level, median income, population density, ethnicity, etc), I've started moving beyond my home state of Michigan.

Here's Colorado:

Arkansas

Now that I've developed a standardized format/layout & methodology for tracking both state- and county-level COVID vaccination levels by partisan lean (which can also be easily applied to other variables like education level, median income, population density, ethnicity, etc), I've started moving beyond my home state of Michigan.

Here's Arkansas:

Note: The CDC doesn't list a home county for ~106,000 AR residents (12.7% of the total fully vaccinated).

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