COVID19

Every year, I spend months painstakingly tracking every insurance carrier rate filing for the following year to determine just how much average insurance policy premiums on the individual market are projected to increase or decrease.

Carriers jump in and out of the market, their tendency repeatedly revise their requests, and the confusing blizzard of actual filing forms which sometimes make it next to impossible to find the specific data I need. The actual data I need to compile my estimates are actually fairly simple, however. I really only need three pieces of information for each carrier:

Annnnnd we're off! In the middle of a deadly global pandemic which has already killed more than 85,000 Americans and completely disrupted the entire U.S. healthcare system, private insurance carriers still have to go about preparing their annual premium rate change filings for 2021. This is a long, complicated process which begins a good nine months before the new plans and prices are actually enrolled in.

The task of setting 2020 premiums was the first time since the ACA went into effect which was relatively calm for insurance carrier actuaries. Unlike setting rates for 2014 or 2015, they weren't dealing with a complete overhaul of the entire insurance industry. Unlike 2016-2017, they weren't dealing with the prospect of ACA premiums being crippled for 3/4 of the country (via King v. Burwell) or the fallout of the Risk Corridor Massacre. Unlike 2018, they weren't dealing with how to deal with CSR rembursements being cut off or the entire ACA being repealed by Congress. Unlike 2019, they didn't have the unknown impact of the individual mandate being repealed to consider.