Charles Gaba's blog

Originally posted 1/05/2025

Texas has ~3.9 MILLION residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have perhaps ~67,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's over 4.0 MILLION Texans, although although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like ~3.8 million statewide.

Originally posted 8/11/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Wyoming Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Blue Cross Blue Shield of WY

Blue Cross Blue Shield of Wyoming (BCBSWY) has offered comprehensive and fully insured coverage to members in the Individual ACA market since 2014. BCBSWY is filing a rate increase for 2026 products. All plans will be offered statewide; plans with be offered either on or off the Federally Facilitated Marketplace in Wyoming.

Originally posted 8/29/25

Overall preliminary rate changes via the SERFF database, Texas Insurance Dept. and/or the federal Rate Review database.

Access to Care Health Plan:

(Access to Care Health Plan is a division of Sendero; unfortunately, they've heavily redacted their actuarial memo and I can't find a justification summary)

Aetna Health:

Aetna is dropping out of the individual market nationally in 2026. In texas, they've provided a market withdrawl letter which includes the exact number of current enrollees in each region of the state:

"Aetna is totally withdrawing from the individual (off and on-exchange) market, effective December 31, 2025. Individuals currently covered under an Aetna plan will need to make a different plan selection for 2026. In accordance with Texas and federal law, consumers will be given 180 days’ notice of the termination of their policy."

Originally posted 8/04/25

via the North Carolina Insurance Dept:

Initial Affordable Care Act Rates for 2026 have been posted

The North Carolina Department of Insurance has posted the rate changes requested by insurers for the 2026 plan year individual and small-group market plans offered under the Affordable Care Act.

Posting of the requested rates is part of the rate review process required by the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS). Unlike some types of insurance, the NCDOI does not set rates for health insurance.

Originally posted 6/06/25

Tennessee ACA exchange carriers were instructed to provide two sets of rate filings for 2026: One which assumes CSR reimbursement payments won't be reinstated, one which assumes they are reinstated. In addition, both sets of filings assume that IRA subsidies won't be extended; all but one carrier clarified how much extending the IRA subsidies would impact 2026 premium changes.

Alliant Health Plans: Alliant is requesting a nominal 0.3% increase next year if CSR payments aren't reinstated and a 1.0% drop if they are. In both cases, premiums would be 2.8% lower if IRA subsidies were to be extended by Congress:

Originally posted 12/28/24

Mississippi has around ~338,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 98% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~14,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 352,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 330,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/07/25

Tennessee has around ~642,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~9,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~652,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 609,000 statewide.

Originally posted 1/20/20

Nebraska has around ~136,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 95% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~2,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's 139,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be back down to more like 130,000 statewide.

Originally posted 2/05/25

Alaska has around ~28,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 88% of whom are currently subsidized. They also have an unknown number of off-exchange enrollees in ACA-compliant individual market policies. Overall, including net attrition, I estimate their total enrollment both on & off exchange to be perhaps ~27,000 or so.

Originally posted 1/02/25

Kansas has around 200,000 residents enrolled in ACA exchange plans, 94% of whom are currently subsidized. I estimate they also have another ~6,000 unsubsidized off-exchange enrollees.

Combined, that's ~206,000 people, although assuming the national average 6.6% net enrollment attrition rate applies, current enrollment would be down to more like 192,000 statewide.

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