OK, it's very important to note that the ratio of QHP selections to QHP determinations, which was consistently hovering between 45-50% throughout the entire Open Enrollment Period, likely shot up significantly over the final weekend. On the other hand, MA has bumped their deadline out by 8 extra days on account of the massive snowstorms, so perhaps not.
With that in mind, assuming at least a 50% ratio since Friday's official numbers (9,109 additional QHP determinations), that would mean a minimum of 4,600 additional selections, for a grand total of at least 130K to date.
In theory, it could be as high as 233,000 if every single person who has been determined eligible to enroll in a QHP has gone back and finished the process. Somehow I doubt it's that high, but that at least gives an idea of the potential ceiling here (and don't forget, there's still another full week for MA residents to start the process).
Meanwhile, Medicaid (MassHealth) has broken the 250K milestone.
I've confirmed that Rhode Island's weather-induced enrollment extension is indeed state-wide and is of the "full" variety (ie, people can start the application process, not just finish it), through February 23rd. This is exactly the same policy that the Massachusetts exchange announced the other day.
OK, first, the official data updates: The MA Health Connector issued their weekly report, confirming 125,651 QHP selections to date, of which 82.2% have paid their first premium. The payment rate hasgone down as expected, since the denominator (March 1st enrollments) has started shooting up while the numerator (payments made) has gone up more slowly...since those payments aren't even due until the 23rd anyway.
Compared to the past 2 weeks, you can see the final surge has definitely kicked in:
As of last Thursday, total QHP selections on the Massachusetts exchange were up to just shy of 119K. Between the weekend and the massive snowstorm that MA is digging out of, they went 5 days without a dashboard report, until today:
As always, I only have the QHP determinations to go by between their weekly reports. As of yesterday, those stood at 221,877, Subtract the 214,027 as of 2/05 and that's another 7,850 QHP determinations. Assuming 50% of those followed through with selecting a plan (a reasonable assumption at this point) and that's another 3,900 QHPs, or at least 122,600 QHPs to date.
Of course, that means that there's also another 99,000 people who started the process and have been approved for a private policy, but who may--or may not--have actually completed the process. Heading into the final 5 days, I presume that more and more of this enrollee pool will be scratched off the list; if, say, 80% of these folks follow through, Massachusetts would hit at least 200,000 QHPs by Sunday night.
OK, looks like my QHP estimate over the past week was fairly close, but a bit conservative...actual QHPs selected are up to nearly 119K, with just shy of 100K even having paid their first premium (thus completeing their enrollment).
100K / 119K = an 84% payment rate, but remember that anyone who has enrolled since 1/23 doesn't have to pay their first premium for over 2 weeks, so this isn't cause for concern.
Meanwhile, they have another 95,000 people who have been determined eligible for QHP selections waiting in the queue, of which nearly 6,000 have a plan in their shopping cart but just haven't pulled the trigger.
MA will have to have 51,274 more QHP selections to reach the 170K target (which, admittedly, was my interpretation of their target, not necessarily their target itself). That'd be 4,600/day, vs. the 1,447/day they've averaged so far.
With yesterday's 1,737 QHP determinations, Massachusetts has likely tacked on another 800 QHPs or so, bringing them up to around 117.5K. In order to reach the 170K target I've estimated, they'll have to enroll about 52K in just 11 days, or a whopping 4,700/day.
I won't know until their weekly report tomorrow whether my "45% of determinations" ratio still stands. At this point the other half of the lingering QHP determinations should start to be kicking in...there's over 214K total; if 117.5K have already selected a plan, that means there's still another 96K people who have gone through about 2/3 of the process already; most of them should be coming back to complete the job now.
For comparison, in 2014, with their broken exchange system, they only averaged 158/day. For the current period, they averaged 1,950 through the January deadline (11/15 - 12/23), and 999/day during the February period (12/24 - 1/22), though that was missing the crucial deadline day of 1/23. Since then they seem to have averaged about 726/day, though that's mostly durign the slowest part of the enrollment period.
Massachusetts continues to crank along. 1,632 QHP determinations x 45% selecting a plan means they should have added another 700 or so QHPs yesterday, for a total of around 116,700 to date.
Another 1,644 QHP determinations yesterday. Assuming about half selected a plan, that's another 800 or so; the total should be up to about 116K by now. Medicaid has now reached 221K.
The "quiet period" continues this week, with just 2,673 QHP determinations over the past 3 days. Assuming 45% followed through and selected a plan, that means roughly 115,100 QHPs to date. Meanwhile, Medicaid enrollments have reached 218,587.
Here we go: The Massachusetts Health Connector has issued their weekly report, which confirms 113,887 QHP selections through last night, with 83% of those having paid their first month's premium and thus being fully enrolled. As I projected last week, the overall payment rate has risen by another 7%, and will likely continue to do so (of course, it will then "drop off" again dramatically during the final February surge, only to shoot back up again over the next few weeks as March enrollees start paying up).
